Collider Oscar Predictions
Welcome to Collider's FYC hub, your best resource for Oscars 2026 predictions. Here, Senior Producer Perri Nemiroff keeps you up to date on the leading contenders based on her knowledge of industry trends and whispers, and her own personal thoughts and instincts.
Remember to come back often for updates! The odds are always changing.Now that Thanksgiving is here, nearly every 2026 Oscar contender has screened and Academy Awards precursors are beginning to unveil their nominees. The latest shake-ups? The reactions to Wicked: For Good and the crafts shortlists for the Critics Choice Awards. After Wicked earned ten nominations, two of which turned into wins, at the 2025 Oscars, it seemed as though the sequel, Wicked: For Good, could be an unstoppable force this time around. However, then the movie started to screen and got a more divisive response than its predecessor. Wicked: For Good currently sits at a 67% on the Tomatometer compared to the first film's 88% score. While I don't think that drop will nudge it out of categories like Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress or even Best Picture, I do suspect it spells the end for individuals who missed out on Oscar nominations last time, like Jon M. Chu for Best Director and Alice Brooks for Cinematopgrahy. However, Wicked: For Good should still be in good shape in other crafts categories, especially after the unveiling of the Critics Choice Association's shortlist across 11 artisan categories. For the first time ever, the organization unveiled shortlists in select categories ahead of the official nominations announcement on December 5. The film that made the most appearances on those shortlists? Sinners with a whopping 13 mentions. Three films followed behind with nine shortlist appearances — Frankenstein, F1 and Wicked: For Good. And as for studio grand totals, Warners Bros. came out on top thanks to Sinners' strong showing, as well as One Battle After Another and Superman earning a few mentions. BEST PICTURE Current Frontrunner: One Battle After Another Also in Contention: Jay Kelly, F1, The Secret Agent, Frankenstein, The Testament of Ann Lee BEST DIRECTOR Current Frontrunner: Paul Thomas Anderson Also in Contention: James Cameron for Avatar: Fire and Ash, Guillermo del Toro for Frankenstein, Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme BEST ACTRESS Current Frontrunner: Jessie Buckley Also in Contention: Kate Hudson for Song Sung Blue, Amanda Seyfried for The Testament of Ann Lee, Chase Infinitie for One Battle After Another BEST ACTOR Current Frontrunner: Timothée Chalamet Also in Contention: Will Arnett for Is This Thing On?, Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon, George Clooney for Jay Kelly BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Current Frontrunner: Amy Madigan Also in Contention: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas for Sentimental Value, Nina Hoss for Hedda, Gwyneth Paltrow for Marty Supreme, Wunmi Mosaku for Sinners, Hailee Steinfeld for Sinners BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Current Frontrunner: Stellan Skarsgård Also in Contention: Jacob Elordi for Frankenstein, Delroy Lindo for Sinners, Miles Caton for Sinners BEST ANIMATED FEATURE Current Frontrunner: KPop Demon Hunters Also in Contention: Elio, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle, Ne Zha 2 BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Current Frontrunner: Sinners Also in Contention: A House of Dynamite, Is This Thing On?, Jay Kelly BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY Current Frontrunner: One Battle After Another Also in Contention: No Other Choice, Hedda BEST CASTING Current Frontrunner: Sinners Also in Contention: Wicked: For Good, Nouvelle Vague, The Plague, Marty Supreme
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