Charlie Morton is looking every bit as old as his 41 years, and the Diamondbacks will show him no mercy in Phoenix tonight, per our MLB betting picks.
Charlie Morton is looking every bit as old as his 41 years, and the Diamondbacks will show him no mercy in Phoenix tonight, per our MLB betting picks.The Arizona Diamondbacks look to snap a three-game losing streak when they host the Baltimore Orioles for Game 2 of their series on Tuesday night.
Two struggling veteran pitchers get the call in Baltimore’s Charlie Morton and Arizona’s Merrill Kelly. I’m heading to the player prop market to fade the former with my Orioles vs. Diamondbacks predictions and, surrendering nine runs across his first 8 1/3 innings. At the ripe old age of 41, it’s fair to question how resounding his bounce-back will be for someone on the ashes of their youth. It’d be easy to give a cursory look at his .478 BABIP and 53% left-on-base percentage and declare bad luck. While that’s certainly part of the equation, it’s not all of it. Those numbers will see positive regression, but to what extent? Morton has been getting absolutely abused by opposing batters, ranking in the first percentile in hard-hit rate, the second percentile in average exit velocity, and the 13th percentile in barrel rate. Morton saw regression on those numbers a year ago and the downward trend is continuing as he ages, except with fewer groundballs . Morton has a five-pitch arsenal, but only his four-seamer and cutter have been effective while his three off-speed and breaking pitches have been battered around. Arizona has good results against the heater, posting the second most runs above replacement . The Diamondbacks also rank Top 10 against the curveball, Morton’s second-most utilized pitch . It’s fair to categorize this as a difficult matchup for the struggling veteran. With favorable hitting conditions at Chase Field and Morton ramped up to a full workload , I’ll be paying the Over on his earned runs prop at 2.5. Morton racked up 10 strikeouts in his last start but that’s not supported by his projected 10.3% swinging strike rate. Arizona has the fourth-lowest K rate against RHP and Morton has recorded fewer than 5.5 strikeouts in three of his last four starts. is finally getting a chance for regular playing time in wake of the Colton Cowser injury. I expect the former second overall pick out of Arkansas to take the opportunity and run with it. He posted an encouraging 116 wRC+ across 114 plate appearances a year ago and the swing-and-miss in his game is mitigated against Merrill Kelly and his 15th percentile whiff rate. Kelly is off to a poor start overall, ranking in the 11th percentile in xERA and the 16th percentile in xBA. Similarly to Morton, he’s allowing far too much hard contact . : Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links. JD is a diehard college football fan with five years of experience writing betting and fantasy content for publications such as SportsGrid, Fantasy Points, Fantrax, and Devy Watch. An avid reader, he uses his inclination to look at things with an exhausting and in-depth, analytic viewpoint combined with a love for statistics and metrics to form a well-rounded handicapping approach. e's an integral member of the niche college fantasy football community, twice traveling to Canton, OH for the Fantasy Football Expo as a member of the CFF King's Classic drafting squad. His specialization in college football DFS and prop betting taught him that there are exploitable markets to be found and that narrowing your focus is integral to being a profitable bettor. A lifelong Californian who grew up playing baseball, basketball, football, and lacrosse, he's glad to share a passionate love for sports with this wonderful community.Copyright © 1995 - 2025 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved. If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.
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