The U.S. consumer trade is stumbling, and it faces a make-or-break moment when Walmart reports earnings on Thursday. Options traders are feeling bullish on the outcome.
," said DaSilva. "Most of the open interest has been in the 120-strike calls and the 125-strike calls."
At minimum, buyers of those 125-strike calls are betting on a 5% move to the upside. This is a bit rich to the 4% implied move but certainly not out of the realm of possibility given that the options market is betting on Walmart to produce a result similar to August's surprising report. If Walmart fails to impress, however, the fallout will likely be felt by the rest of the consumer space. Ironically, the stock itself isn't too far away from a key downside support level, pending an earnings miss.
"You have this uptrend from the December low, touching the August low, [and now] we're right there at the highs," said DaSilva. "Based on the implied move, you could see a nice upside move to well over $120, or on the downside, you're talking around $115, where there should be some support."
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