OPINIONISTA: The electoral virtues of ‘mixed messages’ and ‘less bad parties’ By Susan Booysen BooysenS2
Cacophonies of influences bombard South Africa’s 26.7 million voters daily. Most of them have made up their minds; some are simply serially committed to long-time political homes. Party identification and corresponding voting are the core factors that drive election outcomes. It is the most stable of political orientations, yet not cast in stone. Foul political weather can chip away at seemingly solid edifices and convergent counter-pulls can bring change.
For the ANC to retain even its volatile dominance, its campaigning needs to accomplish the dual tasks of consolidating weak support in its own ranks, and winning over vacillating opposition party supporters. From several recent surveys, we know that these layers of support constitute not more than about 10 percent of the current electorate. Not massive numbers, but enough to swing crucial results.
The ANC has a starting block advantage. It comes with severely dented but nevertheless liberation credentials. It has worked hard at rekindling memories of liberation in the wake of Zumaist fallout. Stubborn legacies of apartheid and colonialism sustain the Aluta Continua argument. The DA has a core base, but its growth of recent elections comprises less committed support – and is susceptible to being won over by the ANC’s flagship campaign chip of Warrior Ramaphosa.
From studies of political attitude change, we know that political identification changes not from one single influence, but when multiple influences converge their messages become mutually reinforcing. In Campaign 2019 there is a feast of campaign signals and it all depends which the weak and wavering – perhaps just honest and realistic – prospective voters will be exposed to.
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