Opinion: The job numbers are much-needed good news. And they’re likely to get better.
fewer people are currently employed by state and local government in education than were employed a year ago, based on seasonally adjusted figures. As schools and universities reopen for in-person instruction, even at reduced levels, most of these people will return to work. That will be a significant boost to the August jobs report, which will be released right before Labor Day.
This doesn’t mean that we will be back to full employment even if the positive trends continue. Employment is still way down in sectors associated with travel, such as air transport, transit and accommodations. Capacity limitations on restaurants and bars will surely keep employment in those sectors below February levels for the foreseeable future.
It does, however, suggest that the unemployment rate is likely to drop below 10 percent by Labor Day unless states start to shut down some of the recently reopened businesses. States reeling from the loss of revenue that comes from the economic morass will be loath to do that absent a significant rise in covid-19 deaths or significant shortages of hospital beds dedicated to treating the seriously ill.
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