From WSJopinion: In the absence of a more fundamental shift in China’s underlying ideological and strategic calculus, confrontation looms as the likeliest outcome in the 2030s, writes MrKRudd
The National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, held every five years, formally appoints the 25-member Politburo and its seven-member standing committee. The names of those elevated to senior positions have been of deep significance to China watchers since 1982, when Deng Xiaoping launched the era of “reform and opening.”
The big news from this National Congress won’t be senior personnel appointments. It will be the ideological content of Mr. Xi’s formal work report. In his regime, communist ideology is no longer a cosmetic formality draped over a de-facto system of unrestrained state capitalism. Mr. Xi is an ideological fundamentalist who has moved the Communist Party to the Leninist left, the economy to the Marxist left, and China’s foreign and security policy to the nationalist right.
Ideology is the main problem. Mr. Xi believes the private sector is a long-term challenge to the Communist Party’s power. He has deep reservations about private control of the tech sector and what he calls the “fictitious economy” of property and finance. Don’t expect any dramatic ideological recommitment to the market from his work report. Mr. Xi could well decide to move further to the ideological left, despite the predictable effect it would have on growth.
Mr. Xi is also aware that China’s geopolitical position has been harmed by its close affiliation with Russia’s disastrous invasion of Ukraine. Beijing’s support for Moscow has been diplomatically damaging, especially in Europe, and China is scrambling to patch things up. Mr. Xi also wants to reduce the current geopolitical drag on global and Chinese growth.
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