Opinion by Sam Wang: The independent state legislature theory would remove traditional curbs on partisan voting maps. But if legal thinkers looked at the math, they would see that a win in in Moore v. Harper would likely backfire on Republicans.
for interpreting the independent state legislature theory in a logically consistent manner: The justices could say that courts cannot use state constitutions to intervene, they could invalidate independent commissions, or they could take away the governor’s veto power over election laws. The Supreme Court has already declined to consider a case involving the third. We gamed out the other two by examining extreme partisan possibilities in each state.
The first interpretation could potentially liberate several Democratic states to gerrymander by removing state court authority. For example, in April, a New York state court used anti-gerrymandering provisions in its state constitution to throw out a Democratic-drawn map that, based on our analysis of past voting patterns, could be expected to consistently elect 19 Democrats and seven Republicans to the House.
Democrats would also gain power if independent citizen commissions were struck down. In 2010, citizens gave an independent commission power over congressional redistricting in deep-blue California, with the support of then-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican. Since then, Michigan and Colorado, two states now controlled by Democrats, have also formed independent commissions.
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