I’m an EV expert, and I’m skeptical about how quickly electric cars will go mainstream in the U.S.
Electric vehicle battery prices have fallen dramatically over the past 15 years, outpacing many past predictions, and electric vehicle sales are accelerating exponentially. Governments and businesses are announcing commitments to an all-electric future.My work as director of the Vehicle Electrification Group at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh suggests that we need to be careful about extrapolating past EV trends into the future because future challenges look fundamentally different.
“ We should remain skeptical about predictions of EV adoption if they are just based on past trends. ” The biggest future cost reductions may come from a breakthrough beyond lithium-ion technology, but these are difficult to predict. Watch for innovations like lithium-metal cathodes, silicon-graphite composite anodes, and polymer electrolytes. But a breakthrough beyond lithium-ion technologies faces even greater challenges as well as long lead times in the automotive industry, so don’t expect them in your car in the next decade.
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