Consider two possible features of debt ceiling brinkmanship: First, Republican political leverage will increase as the X-date draws closer. But if the X-date is reached without a deal, the balance of power could shift, writes Jason Willick in Opinions.
But the GOP advantage goes deeper than polling. The first rule of brinkmanship is that credibility matters. In a standoff, the party that is more willing to do what it is threatening to do has the advantage. Republicans are — probably rightly — perceived as more willing to tolerate the risk that comes from encountering the X-date.
Without the ability to borrow more, the government would have about 75 percent of the revenue it needs to cover its obligations at current rates. As aargued, the Treasury could then prioritize certain payments over others, and would have at least some legal basis for doing so. Discriminating between millions of payments would be a massive logistical challenge, but the government would have no choice but to try.
, primarily discretionary spending would be delayed after X-date. Guess what: Nondefense discretionary spending is precisely the part of the budget the House GOP wants Biden to agree to cut.in March, “Not paying any of our bills is default.” Maybe markets would see it that way immediately, but maybe not. If House Republicans doubt that the X-date would bring catastrophe, at least for their priorities, they would be more willing to hold out for a deal after the date has passed.
But at that point — assuming the world financial system is still standing — the political balance would start to shift. The Bipartisan Policy Centerafter the X-date would involve “forcing executive branch officials to pick winners and losers,” or paying some government invoices and delaying others. Another way of putting this is that Congress will have, in effect, ceded to Biden officials emergency control over parts of the federal budget.
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