Russia as a nation doesn’t support the war in Ukraine, and to understand that, you just have to listen to its own pro-war propaganda.
By closing all independent publications in Russia, the Kremlin established almost total control over Russia’s media with a couple of exceptions; most notably, social media apps YouTube and Telegram still provide Russians access to uncensored information.
Telegram channels today are used by anti-war and pro-war writers and reporters. Unlike tightly controlled television talk shows on Telegram, you can actually find out what people — especially those who support the war — think. I have been monitoring more than 200 pro-war channels since the first days of invasion, and the most common recurring theme among them is: The Russian nation doesn’t support the war enough; Russians don’t want to fight, and they are not interested in victory.How is “support” defined? Do people publicly say that they support Putin’s decision to “denazify Ukraine”? Yes. But words can be empty. If instead we define support as volunteering to fight or supporting the invasion with donations, the picture radically changes. Total exhaustion of the troops on the front lines is the most critical issue that the Russian army faces right now. Russian forces mobilized in the first wave last year have been fighting for more than nine months in very hard conditions with constant supply problems. Telegram users in many channels note that army rules forbid soldiers from going on leave or even returning home after their contract runs out. Users have described that as slavery and vow to never enlist again once they get a chance to leave. There are not enough volunteers to rotate soldiers out of active combat, and even the obscene amount of money that the Russian state has promised to contract soldiers does not attract enough people.Matt Dimmick: Ukraine’s counteroffensive is working. With continued support, its forces will defeat RussiaTelegram users describe contract soldiers who arrive on the front lines as people with poor health who wouldn’t have previously passed government requirements, as well as untrained and largely unmotivated. The only way to keep the army in any type of fighting form is for the Kremlin to announce forced mobilization. That’s according to the pro-war writers who criticize the unwillingness of Russians to fight. One of the more popular Z-channel writers, Alexander Khodakovsky, in his most recent post mused on whether or not commanders should start executing deserters as this might be the only way to win the war. Almost two years into the war, the Russian army is still plagued by a lack of clothes, medicine, water and basic equipment, as well as camouflage nets, all-terrain vehicles and unmanned drones. Pretty much everything soldiers need to survive and fight other than heavy weaponry is still either bought by the soldiers themselves or supplied by volunteers who run hundreds of fundraising campaigns across Russia. Every channel that I monitor either runs its own fundraising or helps someone else, and the constant complaint is that there is not enough money. People are tired, and every day, they raise less and less.Read the latest editorials and commentary curated by the Tribune Opinion team.
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