Countless questions, most unanswerable, remain.
President Biden's debate performance is at the center of a host of questions about his future as a candidate, but polling doesn't provide a clear path ahead. , a weekly dive into the data behind the news. Each Saturday, national columnist Philip Bump makes and breaks down charts explaining the latest in economics, pop culture, politics and more.The most obvious is whether Biden will drop out, allowing his party to nominate someone else as its candidate to run againstin November.
We can also say that the poll that plays perhaps the most outsize role in the consciousness of Democratic elected officials and activiststhat Biden lost ground. That’s the one from the New York Times and Siena College, a poll that thanks to the prominence of its sponsor, often drives discussion of the state of the race on the left.The Times polled Americans before and after the debate, allowing us to see how things have changed.
But there are caveats to apply here. First, that the polls included smaller numbers of Black and Hispanic respondents, so the margins of error are higher.More importantly, the numbers after the debate among men, young voters and Black voters look a lot like the numbers from the Times’s April poll. Then, men preferred Trump by 20 points compared to 23 points now. Black voters preferred Biden by 60 points; now it’s 65. Young voters preferred Biden by two points then and three points now.
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