WASHINGTON: A one-time lockdown won't halt COVID-19 and repeated periods of social distancing may be required into 2022 to prevent hospitals from ...
The Harvard team's computer simulation, which was published in a paper in the journal Science, assumed that COVID-19 will become seasonal, like closely related coronaviruses that cause the common cold, with higher transmission rates in colder months.
"What seems to be necessary in the absence of other sorts of treatments are intermittent social distancing periods," he added. The duration and intensity of lockdowns can be relaxed as treatments and vaccines become available. But in their absence, on and then off distancing would give hospitals time to increase critical care capacity to cater for the surge in cases that would occur when the measures are eased.
"By permitting periods of transmission that reach higher prevalence than otherwise would be possible, they allow an accelerated acquisition of herd immunity," said co-author Marc Lipsitch.
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