The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts that most of U.S. will turn warmer than average for Memorial Day, with scattered storms.
Most of the U.S. is set to see above-average temperatures in May, with heat building especially across the South, Midwest and Southwest. Much of the country is also trending drier than normal, though key regions will likely see pockets of heavier rain.
Northeast The almanac predicts warmer-than-average temperatures for these regions, around 3 degrees Fahrenheit above average, alongside below-normal rainfall. Atlantic Corridor Memorial Day outlook: Warm with scattered thunderstorms possible. Temperatures may run slightly above normal, but rainfall could split sharply: drier in the north and wetter in the south Memorial Day outlook: Mixed. Some areas are expected to be dry and pleasant, while others may be prone to showers.
The region may be warmer than average, with a shift from a dry April to a wetter May. Conditions trend warm overall, with rainfall returning to near normal in May. Memorial Day outlook: Warm to hot temperatures, particularly in the north, and scattered thunderstorms. Temperatures may run above average, with drier conditions in the east and wetter conditions in the west.
Ohio Valley The almanac calls for above-average temperatures, with wetter conditions in the east and drier conditions in the west. Deep South This region is expected to be warmer-than-normal overall with above‑normal rainfall in northern areas and drier conditions further south, alongside frequent thunderstorm periods. Memorial Day outlook: Warm and humid with scattered thunderstorms, especially in the northern parts of the region.
This region is forecast to be warmer and wetter than normal in the west, and cooler and drier in the east, with increased precipitation overall. Heartland The weather outlook is warm overall with mixed rainfall—drier in northern areas and wetter further south. Memorial Day outlook: Warm with a mix of sunshine and scattered showers, especially toward the southern parts of the region.
Texas and Oklahoma are likely to see warm temperatures, but slightly below average in northern areas, with above‑normal rainfall and periods of unsettled, stormy weather. Memorial Day outlook: Rain and cooler temperatures are expected, with an elevated risk of thunderstorms later in the week. This region is forecast to get warmer‑than‑normal temperatures with uneven rainfall—drier in the east and wetter in the west.
Intermountain The conditions are likely to vary across this region—cooler and wetter in the north, warmer and drier in the south. Memorial Day outlook: Changeable weather with a mix of cooler spells in the north, warmer in the south and isolated showers. This region may see average temperatures, with rainfall higher in the east and lower in the west.
Pacific Northwest Temperatures are expected to be cooler in northern areas and slightly warmer in the South, with overall drier conditions than usual. Mild temperatures with occasional light showers, especially in northern zones. Coastal and Southern California experience above‑normal temperatures in May with below‑normal rainfall. Southern Alaska trends milder with drier conditions, while northern areas see warmer temperatures and increased precipitation.
Memorial Day outlook: Mild overall, but sunny in the north with scattered showers in central and southern areas. The islands see warmer‑than‑usual conditions in May, with below‑normal rainfall in eastern areas and above‑normal rainfall in central and western regions. Memorial Day outlook: Warm and tropical, with a mix of sunshine and localized showers, depending on the island and location.
The almanac's outlook points to a simple national pattern:Storm risk zones: Southeast, Texas, Oklahoma and the Appalachian regionsAbove all, travelers should expect warm weather nearly everywhere, while keeping an eye on pop-up storms. From Maine to California, the almanac suggests Memorial Day 2026 will usher in an early taste of summer across most states. Expect heat in the South and West, warmth in the East, and thunderstorms as the biggest wildcard—a fitting reminder that long‑range forecasts set expectations, not guarantees.
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