Oil prices to remain elevated as Middle East tensions threaten a wider conflict, CBA analyst warns

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Oil prices to remain elevated as Middle East tensions threaten a wider conflict, CBA analyst warns
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Brent forecast to trade at $75 to $85 per barrel in September due to diminishing prospects of a truce in Gaza and an expected Iranian retaliation against Israel.

"Israel's response may include an attack on Iran's oil supply and related infrastructure, which would put at risk 3% - 4% of global oil supply," said Vivek Dhar, mining and energy commodities strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

This photo taken from a position in northern Israel shows a Hezbollah UAV intercepted by Israeli air forces over north Israel on August 25, 2024. The Israeli military announced early August 25, 2024 that it was conducting pre-emptive strikes in Lebanon after detecting preparations for "large-scale" attacks by the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah.

While there is a risk that the confrontation spirals out into a wider conflict, there is still room for de-escalation, he added. Dhar also said the progress of Gaza truce talks will be an indicator of how Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas interpret the events over the weekend.on Sunday regarding the Gaza conflict, with Egyptian security sources telling the agency that neither Hamas nor Israel agreed to proposals presented by mediators in Cairo.

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