College football odds, picks and prediction for Ohio Bobcats vs Buffalo Bulls. Week 11 betting free pick and game analysis.
Between two excellent defenses, two struggling offenses, and rain expected to impact this midweek affair between Ohio and Buffalo, our NCAAF picks think the 44-point total may still be a few points too high.With the first week of MACtion in the books, it didn’t disappoint.
Even with 2022 MAC Player of the Year Kurtis Rourke at quarterback, the Bobcats haven’t been nearly as consistent on offense this season. With Rourke battling injuries all year, Ohio is just 98th in EPA per play and this running game has been among the least efficient in the country. Unlike their defense, the Bulls offense has been a mess this season, which is a big reason why Maurice Linguist’s team is just 3-6 despite creating so many turnovers.
It’s going to be a long night for Snyder & Co. with Bobcat defensive coordinator Spence Nowinsky’s group quietly being among the best in the country. Ohio ranks 17th in EPA per play on defense, 18th in EPA per pass, and 28th in EPA per rush. Between Buffalo’s turnover-forcing secondary, the Bobcats' dominant defensive play, these two struggling offenses, and the weather conditions, the Under is appetizing on a Tuesday night in Amherst.With the Bobcats having the better defense and the more proven offense, they’re in a more trustworthy position to dominate this game on the road.
Ohio is 4-5 against the spread this season and 0-3 ATS in their last three outings. In the MAC, they’ve gone 2-3 ATS. Buffalo has been slightly better ATS at 5-4. They’ve been a solid bet to cover as an underdog going 4-2 ATS. In the MAC, they’re 3-2 ATS.
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