The upper levels of the ocean have never been this hot. Blame the end of La Niña and the ever-present heating effect of climate change.
Ocean surface temperatures have hit an all-time high this month, breaking every record since satellite measurements began in the 1980s.
The new record is the result of the buildup of heat from climate change, now unsuppressed by La Niña — a natural ocean cycle of cold surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific that had been ongoing for three years, but which ended in March . "Even though greenhouse gas concentrations in 2022 were the highest ever, it was not the warmest year on record" in terms of global surface temperatures, McPhaden said. That’s because of La Niña."Twenty-sixteen was the warmest year on record, and that’s because we had this high burden of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere plus a major El Niño. The combination shot the global surface temps into record territory.
Currently, the Pacific is in a neutral state of neither El Niño nor La Niña. But forecast models put the chances of tipping into an El Niño later this year at roughly 60%, McPhaden said, which could mean another record-breaking heat year. There is typically a lag between when these oceanic cycles start and when surface temperatures heat up, he said.
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