NYDIG Research argues that the future of Bitcoin is primarily influenced by the macroeconomic effects of Artificial Intelligence, including its impact on growth, employment, real interest rates, and central bank liquidity. The note explores various scenarios, including potential job losses and productivity gains, and their implications for Bitcoin's valuation.
NYDIG Research suggests that the future trajectory of Bitcoin is less dependent on technological advancements and more influenced by the macroeconomic effects of Artificial Intelligence . Key variables like economic growth, employment levels, real interest rates, and central bank liquidity are expected to play a critical role.
If AI-driven automation leads to significant job losses, potentially weakening consumer demand and straining debt payments, policymakers might respond with measures like lower interest rates or increased fiscal spending to stabilize the economy. Such actions, often involving liquidity injections, could provide a supportive environment for Bitcoin, which has historically correlated with shifts in the global money supply. Conversely, if AI boosts productivity and drives economic growth without causing major job losses, real yields could rise, and central banks might maintain tighter monetary policies. This scenario, with higher real interest rates, could exert downward pressure on Bitcoin valuations by increasing the opportunity cost of holding the cryptocurrency and making risk assets less attractive.\Historically, significant technological disruptions, like the steam engine, electrification, and the advent of computers and the internet, have sparked initial fears of widespread job displacement. However, these disruptions ultimately led to expanded productive capacity and the creation of new industries, such as cloud computing, which were previously unimaginable. NYDIG's research posits that AI integration may follow a similar pattern. AI, as a general-purpose technology, requires firms to redesign workflows and invest in complementary tools, which, over time, tends to expand productive capacity. The implications are not that the disruption will be painless, but the equilibrium response to new technology has historically been integration, not obsolescence. This distinction is crucial for Bitcoin. If AI ultimately contributes to long-term growth, the structural backdrop could differ from short-term shocks that often drive liquidity injections. Meanwhile, agentic payments, a concept where software autonomously handles payments without human intervention, could boost Bitcoin adoption. This concept aligns with one of Bitcoin's earliest visions: machine-to-machine payments. However, widespread adoption of agentic payments may be slowed down by the lack of rewards and short-term credit offered by credit cards, features that stablecoins currently do not match.\Ultimately, Bitcoin's performance will mirror the human response to the disruption caused by AI. Whether AI triggers deflationary shocks forcing governments to inject money or fuels a productivity boom that raises real yields, Bitcoin will reflect these macro-economic shifts. Additionally, the text also mentions a separate case regarding Iran and its growing use of Bitcoin and stablecoins to bypass the U.S. dollar, building a multibillion-dollar parallel economy supported by state-sponsored Bitcoin mining, heavily driven by the IRGC. The government uses this crypto infrastructure for international trade, while ordinary Iranians use it as a financial lifeline during protests and economic crises. Recent military actions have threatened Iran's power grid, essential to the energy-intensive mining operations that maintain this financial channel. Lastly, the news touches upon the proposal by a former Mt. Gox CEO to rewrite Bitcoin's code to recover stolen funds, a suggestion which was quickly rejected
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