NRF and Hackett Associates say retailers are pulling imports forward, boosting June port volumes before tariffs and higher shipping costs curb demand.
June cargo volumes are expected to surge 14 percent, but NRF forecasts import declines through the traditional peak season months.is forecast to reach 2.25 million 20-foot equivalent units in June, up 14.3 percent from the year prior, according to the monthly “The current import surge will likely last into July, with an early peak season that resembles the more recent pattern of raised volume rather than a sharp peak,” said Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett in a statement.
“After this, we expect a weakening in import volume as consumer uncertainty remains high and the impact of increasing inflation takes its toll. ”Due to these concerns, imported ocean-borne volumes are projected for sharp declines for the remainder of the summer. According to the port tracker,entering the U.S. in July is forecast at 2.19 million TEUs, down 8.4 percent year over year.
August, which is the typical start to the peak pre-holiday shipping season, will see an even steeper 8.6 percent decline to 2.12 million TEUs.
“We expect to see a year-over-year increase this month that’s partly driven by retailers bringing in merchandise early because of higher costs from tariffs or fuel prices that could come starting in August,” said Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy at NRF. “Nonetheless, the ongoing trend is for lowerWith oil prices remaining elevated due to the war in Iran, retailers had already sought to get in front of monthly bunker adjustments set by ocean carriers for June 1 and July 1.
The carriers have also implemented more peak season surcharges over the past month, further propping up freight rates. Gold’s mention of tariffs comes as the Trump administration keeps coming up with new ways to tack on duties forvia Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act to address “balance-of-payments” issues. These duties are temporary and will last until July 24.
After the United States Trade Representative concluded a probe alleging that 60 countries failed to effectively address the importation of goods made via forced labor, the administration plans on slapping these countries withTariffs have heavily impacted the cadence of goods flowing into the U.S. since the initial imposition of the IEEPA tariffs on “Liberation Day” last April.handled 2.05 million TEUs, down 7.3 percent year-over-year from when shipments of cargo ordered before Liberation Day were being transported to American ports. Ports have not yet reported May numbers, but NRF and Hackett projected the month at 2.14 million TEUs, up 9.7 percent from a year earlier.
Imports last May were down sharply due to the cancellation andSupply chain technology solutions provider Descartes Systems had similar projections for containerized imports entering U.S. gateways that month. Descartes calculated that May’s import volumes increased by 11.5 percent from the prior year to 2.43 million TEUs. During the month, containerized imports from the top 10 countries of origin increased 15.3 percent year-over-year.
The growth was driven primarily by China, where volumes rose 28.1 percent, along with strong gains from Hong Kong , Thailand , Indonesia and Vietnam . Volumes out of China remain 20.2 percent below the July 2024 peak. Although the remainder of the summer is expected to see volatility in volumes when compared to last year, the differences appear to normalize by the early fall.
According to September’s cargo totals are estimated to come in at 2.06 million TEUs, down 2.2 percent from the year prior. October is forecast at 2.08 million TEU, up 0.1 percent. In a letter to USTR Greer, the senators say the mere warning of the surcharges worked, with orders at Chinese shipyards down 23.5 percent in the first nine months of 2025.
Low-cost e-commerce shipments out of China fell 10.9 percent year over year in April, marking the fifth straight monthly decline for the sector. WWD and Women's Wear Daily are part of Penske Media Corporation. © 2026 Fairchild Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Please follow us on Google to support us United States Latest News, United States Headlines
Similar News:You can also read news stories similar to this one that we have collected from other news sources.
Houthis threaten total Red Sea shipping ban on Israel as regional tensions surgeYemen’s Houthi movement warns of intensified maritime attacks and renewed missile strikes, linking its actions to escalating conflicts across the Middle East.
Read more »
Randy Arozarena’s Message to a Heckling Tigers Fan Was Peak Mariners TheaterMan, how can you not love Randy Arozarena right now? The Seattle Mariners outfielder already plays with an energy that makes him hard to miss. The home run trot
Read more »
Robot mountaineer reaches 6,200-meter peak in EcuadorA modified Unitree G1 humanoid robot reached the summit of Chimborazo as part of an ambitious Everest-bound expedition.
Read more »
Batteries Don’t Need To Electrify Every Ship To Reshape Shipping FuelsA new Nature-family paper finds a serious short-sea maritime battery wedge, and costly low-emissions fuels make electrification harder to dismiss.
Read more »