Forex Analysis by Investing.com (Günay Caymaz) covering: EUR/USD, XAU/USD, US Dollar Index Futures, Gold Futures. Read Investing.com (Günay Caymaz)'s latest article on Investing.com
exceeded expectations by 0.2 percent. This current situation in Europe has cast doubt on the likelihood of the European Central Bank maintaining unchanged interest rates in September.Last week, the DXY broke out of a bearish horizontal channel with a closing value of 104 but seemed inclined to retest the upper boundary of this channel this week, exhibiting a mild easing.
While there isn't yet concrete confirmation of an upward breakout for the DXY, reaching the 105 level assumes importance for validating the dollar's strength. However, if the market prices in the likelihood of the US maintaining its interest rates in September, we might observe a continued decline in the DXY, reverting to the channel pattern. From a technical standpoint, the pivotal level to watch is at 103, which could determine the index's direction moving forward.If the dollar tends to weaken in the coming days, the possibility of the DXY falling to the 100 level limit increases depending on the current channel movement. In the upside, we continue to follow the 105 limit as a breakout point. However, according to the current data, the possibility of a correction outweighs the upside.made a move to get back into the channel this week after breaching the lower band of the ascending channel last week and testing the 1.07 band. For the euro to strengthen, it needs to regain the $1.09 band, but the moves towards this area have been weak this week. A possible increase in demand for the euro could be the catalyst for a reversal of the EUR/USD trend if the hawkish rhetoric regarding the ECB's rate hike in September continues. In the last case, it became important for EUR/USD to see a weekly close above 1.0860.After a start above $1.086 next week, the resistance zone in the range of $1.09 - $1.096 will be closely monitored for trend reversal attempts. In the daily closes of the pair above 1.096, we may see the start of the last upward wave in the 2023 uptrend. This may trigger EUR/USD's movement towards the 1.13 - 1.14 range. In the lower region, the 1.08 level continues to be followed as the main support.tended to reverse the downward trend that has been continuing since May, with support in the $ 1,880 region in mid-August.The recovery effort in XAU/USD, which continued this week after accelerating last week, has an image that breaks the short-term downtrend. The mixed course in the global economy may cause investors to see gold as a safe haven again. In this case, the average $ 1,970 region may be decisive for the continuation of the rise. In weekly closures above this value, we can see that ounce gold can step into the $ 2,000 region again. If the trend continues, we can see that the next record levels may occur in the range of $ 2,130 - $ 2,200. In the lower region, short-term EMA values extending to $ 1,925 constitute a support zone for gold. XAU/USD, which will retreat to the negative zone below this value, may continue to depreciate towards the $ 1,800 region depending on the downtrend.
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