Likelihood of greater activity rises due to record-warm sea surface temperatures. NOAA has increased the prediction for an above-normal 2023 Atlantic hurricane season to 60%, up from the 30% chance predicted in May. Influenced by El Nino and other climate factors, the updated forecast calls for 1
— have increased their prediction for the ongoing 2023 Atlantic hurricane season from a near-normal level of activity to an above-normal level of activity with today’s update. Forecasters believe that current ocean and atmospheric conditions, such as record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures, are likely to counterbalance the usually limiting atmospheric conditions associated with the ongoing El Nino event.
NOAA’s update to the 2023 outlook — which covers the entire six-month hurricane season that ends on November 30 — calls for 14-21 named storms , of which 6-11 could become hurricanes . Of those, 2-5 could become major hurricanes . NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence. These updated ranges include storms that have already formed this season.
The 2023 Atlantic tropical cyclone names selected by the World Meteorological Organization. Credit: NOAA“The main climate factors expected to influence the 2023 Atlantic hurricane activity are the ongoing El Nino and the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, including record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
A below-normal wind shear forecast, slightly below-normal Atlantic trade winds and a near- or above-normal West African Monsoon were also key factors in shaping this updated seasonal forecast.NOAA’s hurricane outlooks are forecasts of overall season activity, not landfalls. A storm’s landfall is usually the result of mesoscale weather patterns and are typically predictable within roughly one week of a storm approaching a landmass.
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