The El Niño pattern that has given us a milder and dryer than typical winter could be on the way out according to government forecasters.
FILE - Image of the Space Needle with snow-covered trees in the foreground. The El Niño pattern that has given us a milder and dryer than typical winter could be on the way out, according to government forecasters.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center has issued a "La Niña Watch" for this summer. They said a watch is issued when conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño or La Niña conditions within the next six months.NOAA said an El Niño pattern is when average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are warmer than average. La Niña means water temperatures in the same area are cooler than average.
While El Niño is likely to blame for our reduced rainfall and lack of snow in the mountains, along with mild winter temperatures this year, don’t expect a La Niña pattern to have a big impact on your summer months. El Niño and La Niña patterns bring changes to our weather during the winter according to NOAA, not during the summer.
The latest update from NOAA said there is a 79% chance of a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral sea temperatures between April and June of this year. There is also a 55% chance of a La Niña pattern developing between June and August.Not only are sea temperature readings indicating the coming change, according to NOAA, but they also indicate that since 1950, more than half of El Niño events were followed shortly by a transition to a La Niña.
Government climatologists said the transition can happen quickly. NOAA said in 1973 and 1998 there was only a three-month period of neutral conditions before switching to La Niña.
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