Juan Guaidó’s interim presidency will end in four months. What will Venezuela's opposition do then?
abysmal standards, this has been a bad year for Venezuelans. Covid-19 has struck a country whose health system collapsed long ago. Because of mismanagement and, since last year, swingeing American sanctions, the economy is sinking to subsistence level:is set to decline by about 15% this year, and will be 72% smaller than it was in 2013.
It hasn’t worked. A small military rebellion flopped last year. Aides to Mr Guaidó were linked to an amateurish invasion attempt led by mercenaries from Florida in May. Despite further American sanctions, 20 months after Mr Guaidó’sMr Maduro remains in firm control. His approval rating was just 13% in August, but Mr Guaidó’s has fallen from 61% in early 2019 to 26%, according to Luis Vicente León of Datanálisis, a pollster.
Henrique Capriles, the opposition’s presidential candidate in 2012 and 2013 and electorally its most successful figure, has been negotiating with the government over taking part in the legislative vote. Last month the regime released 50 political prisoners and pardoned 60 who are in exile. Having taken over three of the main opposition parties, it has reversed that decision on one.
One reading of all this is that Mr Maduro has succeeded in dividing the opposition. In fact, those divisions were already there. They are not just between moderates, like Mr Capriles, and radicals, who mainly back Mr Guaidó, but also between exiles and those in Venezuela. By financing the interim government, the United States has created a perverse incentive for Mr Guaidó’s team to prolong the status quo. The end of the assembly’s term is a reality check.
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