Scientific advances have renewed hopes of “unlimited energy,” while economic studies suggest that fusion power will be more costly than wind or solar.
The results suggest the answer could vary a lot depending on the cost and mix of other energy sources on the decarbonized grid, like renewables, nuclear fission, or natural gas plants outfitted with carbon capture devices. In most scenarios, fusion appears likely to end up in a niche much like that held by good ol’ nuclear fission today, albeit without the same safety and waste headaches.
So, on those terms, can fusion compete? The point of the study wasn’t to estimate costs for an individual reactor. But the good news is that Schwartz was able to find at least one design that could produce energy for the right price: the Aries-AT,of a fusion power plant outlined by physicists at UC San Diego in the early 2000s.
“Fundamentally, it comes down to big uncertainties,” he says. “It's a tricky feeling, especially when people have pushed this idea of a ‘holy grail’ or ‘limitless’ energy. They use these words, and I don't think it's done fusion any favors.” Fusion companies—unsurprisingly—are keen to explain why their designs will not only crack the physics of fusion but also be uniquely economical. Proposed reactors can be broadly grouped into two categories: One, known as tokamaks, use powerful magnets to produce plasma. The other uses an approach called inertial confinement that aims to crush and energize a target by striking it with a laser, as in NIF’s ignition experiment, or high-speed projectiles.
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