Market Overview Analysis by Claudia Sahm covering: . Read Claudia Sahm's latest article on Investing.com
Today’s post previews Friday’s Jobs Day and explains why the headlines might be misleading. Specifically, temporary factors may weigh down the payroll estimates in addition to the usual noise in the data.Fed Governor Chris Waller recently shared his view on the distortions to October:
I expect these factors may reduce employment growth by more than 100,000 this month, and there may be a small effect on the unemployment rate, but I'm not sure it will be that visible. Let’s start by assuming that the underlying pace of payroll gains is back to its 2017-19 average of 183,000 per month. . Setting aside the hurricanes and Boeing strike, the initial estimates are always imprecise. The 90% confidence interval based on survey sampling error is +/- 130,000. So, even if payrolls were on trend, the estimate range could be large.
Negative payroll prints are not uncommon, even in good economic times. The October 2024 print is a good candidate for one, given the extra factors from the hurricanes and the strike. A low print alone does not mean the labor market is slipping. Other parts of the release and outside data will help unpack the headline.The employment report will be messy, but that does not mean we can’t learn anything. For example, a move in the—consensus is flat at 4.
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