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Leading indicators point to a potentially above-expected reading in this month’s NFP report, with headline job growth potentially coming in somewhere in the 50-100K rangeAfter the longest government shutdown in history, the intrepid folks at the Bureau of Labor Statistics are back at work to deliver the SEPTEMBER version of the monthly jobs report.
As the table below shows, economists believe the US labor market extended its “low hire, low fire” regime in September:With reporting still ambiguous about whether we will ever see the October jobs report , this could be one of the last readings we see on the labor market before the FOMC meets for the final time of the year to make a tough decision on whether tothe stage is set for a potentially volatile reaction to the releaseAs regular readers know, we focus on four historically reliable leading indicators to help handicap each month’s NFP report, but given the government shutdown, we don’t have access to the most relevant initial jobless claims reports this month:Weighing the data and our internal models, the leading indicators point to a potentially above-expected reading in this month’s NFP report, with headline job growth potentially coming in somewhere in the 50-100K rangeRegardless, the month-to-month fluctuations in this report are notoriously difficult to predict, so we wouldn’t put too much stock into any forecasts . As always, the other aspects of the release, including the closely-watched average hourly earnings figure and unemployment rate, will also impact how markets react to the release.is near the middle of its recent ranges against most of its major rivals, leaving a neutral balance of risks headed into the release.Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks. Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes.and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website. It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
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