Market Analysis by covering: US Dollar Index Futures, US Dollar Index RT. Read 's Market Analysis on Investing.com
Bitcoin price today: slips below $86k as risk remains frail ahead of payrolls datais oversold against many of its rivals, setting the stage for a potential bounce ahead of the holidays as long asLeading indicators point to a potentially above-expected reading in this month’s NFP report, with headline job growth potentially coming in somewhere in the 60-100K range Ahead of the jobs report, the US dollar is oversold against many of its rivals, setting the stage for a potential bounce ahead of the holidays as long as NFP remains positive.
The year may end not with a bang but with a whimper when it comes to the US jobs market. Traders are keen for the latest NFP report from the BLS, which continues to dig itself out of the longest-shutdown-in-US-government-history hole with this week’s delayed report. As the table below shows, economists believe the US labor market extended its “low hire, low fire” regime in November:After essentially missing the October jobs report due to a lack of survey data , the Fed will closely scrutinize the November figures when setting out the path of monetary policy through early 2026.in January, meaning that the market reaction to the release may be more limited unless it shows a large deterioration in the labor market.As regular readers know, we focus on four historically reliable leading indicators to help handicap each month’s NFP report, but given the government shutdown, we don’t have access to the most relevant initial jobless claims reports this month:the leading indicators point to a potentially above-expected reading in this month’s NFP report, with headline job growth potentially coming in somewhere in the 60-100K rangeRegardless, the month-to-month fluctuations in this report are notoriously difficult to predict, so we wouldn’t put too much stock into any forecasts . As always, the other aspects of the release, including the closely-watched average hourly earnings figure and unemployment rate, will also impact how markets react to the release.Technically speaking, the US dollar is relatively weak compared to most of its major rivals, leaving the balance of risks skewed to a potential bounce as long as the jobs report remains in positive territory.remains in a near-term downtrend, weighed down by expectations of additional FOMC interest rate cuts as other major central banks shift to a more neutral outlook heading into 2026. Technically speaking, DXY put in a “double top” pattern at 100.40 in November, setting the stage for a drop to the “measured move” objective near prior support at 97.60 in time. That said, the greenback is oversold by some near-term measures, setting the stage for a short-term bounce back to the upper-98.00s as long as the jobs report remains in positive territory. With traders looking to square up positions ahead of the holidays, it would likely take a spike in the unemployment rate toward 4.5% or 4.6% to accelerate the downside momentum against that backdrop.Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks. Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes.and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website. It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
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