Sam Farmer makes his picks and predictions for Week 10 of the NFL season, with the Rams defeating the 49ers on the road and the Eagles earning a win at Green Bay.
Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups and makes his predictions for Week 10 of the NFL season. All lines and over/under numbers are according to FanDuel Sportsbook. Last week, Farmer posted a 10-4 record.
Through the first nine weeks of the season, he is 88-47 . Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, his record against the spread in Week 9 would have been 6-8 . For the season, his record against the spread is 67-68 . All times are Pacific and TV reflects broadcasts in the Los Angeles area. The Bengals, Chiefs, Cowboys and Titans are off. Tonight, 5:15. TV: Amazon Prime. Line: Broncos by 9½. O/U: 42½. The Broncos’ defense is elite up front, leading the league in sacks by a wide margin. Bo Nix has become a steady closer, and Denver’s offense is showing balance. Expect the Raiders to hang around before fading late. Pick: Broncos 27, Raiders 17 Sunday, 6:30 a.m. TV: NFL Network. Line: Colts by 6½. O/U: 48½. The Falcons’ offense continues to sputter with turnovers and missed chances, while the Colts’ ground game and physicality give them an edge in Berlin. Indianapolis figures to bounce back after a sloppy loss. Pick: Colts 28, Falcons 23 Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: Fox. Line: Bears by 3½. O/U: 47½. The Giants play hard defensively but lack firepower, whereas the Bears’ young offense keeps improving. Chicago’s pass rush will make the difference at home, especially with the Giants lacking weapons. Pick: Bears 24, Giants 20 Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket. Line: Bills by 9½. O/U: 49½. The Bills found new life coming off their bye, while Miami continues to struggle in big games. Expect Buffalo to control both lines of scrimmage, and Josh Allen will find ways to punch holes in that defense. Pick: Bills 34, Dolphins 21 Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket. Line: Ravens by 4½. O/U: 47½. The Vikings are starting to click behind rookie quarterback JJ McCarthy. Huge win over Detroit on Sunday. But Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ balance on offense prove too much in a tight one. Pick: Ravens 28, Vikings 24 Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket. Line: Browns by 2½. O/U: 37½. Both defenses dominate, and points will be hard to come by. Cleveland’s defensive front and run game tilt the field just enough against a Jets team coming off its only win. Pick: Browns 14, Jets 10 Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: CBS. Line: Buccaneers by 2½. O/U: 48½. The Patriots are finding ways to win but still make too many mistakes. Second-year quarterback Drake Maye is terrific. Tampa Bay, rested and healthier after a bye, edges New England behind a balanced attack. Pick: Buccaneers 28, Patriots 24 Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket. Line: Panthers by 5½. O/U: 39½. The Panthers have quietly found consistency with or without Bryce Young at quarterback and an opportunistic defense. The Saints, once in the “buy now” phase, are currently in the “pay later” phase. Pick: Panthers 27, Saints 21 Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket. Line: Texans by 1½. O/U: 38½. Quarterback Davis Mills can’t keep pace with a confident Jaguars defense that’s playing at a high level. Jacksonville is coming off a one-point win over the shaky Raiders, but should pick up this road victory. Pick: Jaguars 23, Texans 17 Sunday, 1:05 p.m. TV: NFL Ticket. Line: Seahawks by 6½. O/U: 45½. The Seahawks are emerging as a dark-horse contender to go deep in the playoffs, playing tough defense and moving the ball efficiently. The Cardinals’ quarterback carousel continues to sink the team. Pick: Seahawks 34, Cardinals 20 Sunday, 1:25 p.m. TV: Fox. Line: Rams by 3½. O/U: 50½. Matthew Stafford stays hot and leads a statement win over the Niners. Even with Christian McCaffrey rolling, the Rams’ defense rises late. Still, out-coaching Kyle Shanahan would be a feat. Pick: Rams 27, 49ers 23 Sunday, 1:25 p.m. TV: NFL Ticket. Line: Lions by 8½. O/U: 49½. The Commanders’ offense figures to crumble after losing their starting quarterback, and Marcus Mariota can’t consistently sustain drives. Detroit bounces back strong from a loss, and rolls. Pick: Lions 34, Commanders 20 Sunday, 5:20 p.m. TV: NBC, Peacock. Line: Chargers by 3. O/U: 45½. The Steelers’ turnover luck runs out against a healthier Chargers team. Even without Joe Alt, and the offensive line constantly in flux, Justin Herbert does enough to protect home turf. Pick: Chargers 27, Steelers 24 Monday, 5:15 p.m. TV: ABC, ESPN. Line: Packers by 2½. O/U: 44½. The Eagles have won two in a row, and seem to be on fairly stable ground. The Packers respond to last Sunday’s letdown versus Carolina with renewed focus. Go with the more seasoned quarterback. Pick: Eagles 24, Packers 21
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