The race to be Super Bowl LIX champion is wide open. Who are the contenders? Who are the pretenders? We picked every NFL postseason game.
From left to right: Josh Allen , Danielle Hunter , Roquan Smith , Justin Jefferson , Dan Campbell . , with episodes released once a week. Barnwell joined ESPN in 2011 as a staff writer at Grantland. Follow him on Twitter here:this month and the Super Bowl in February, this article makes it really simple: I lay out who will win each of theThat's a slight exaggeration.
The Steelers probably aren't winning this game if they need to score 28 points on offense. They'll need help from the special teams and defense, the latter of which hasn't produced many big plays in recent weeks.Dan Graziano and Domonique Foxworth discuss the possibility of Mike Tomlin becoming available if the Steelers lose to the Ravens.
Under new defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, the Chargers have relied heavily on zone coverages, which they use at the league's fourth-highest rate. They're a heavy quarters coverage team. The 2023 version of Stroud picked apart these kinds of defenses by ripping deep posts for huge gains, but he hasn't done the same this season. He ranks 27th in QBR against zone coverages, the worst mark of any starting quarterback who made the postseason.
The Packers thrive by doing one thing really well, and it's something that would have me worried if I were an Eagles fan. In that Week 1 game, Hurts hit. Hafley's defense apparently got so furious that it decided to stop allowing big plays. At all. That long Brown touchdown was the last time the Packers allowed a team to gain 40 yards or more -- all season. Green Bay hasn't allowed a gain of 40 yards or more on American soil.
The Eagles, though, don't really blitz. They send extra rushers just 20% of the time, the fifth-lowest rate. They have a great front four, which allows them to control the line of scrimmage with their pass rush, but Fangio likes to drop into coverage and trust that he can win with his defensive line. There's nothing wrong with that philosophy, but it might not be the best fit for beating Green Bay.
This likely will be a close game, and what might decide things could be who ends up playing in the secondary for either team. Playing at home, I lean narrowly toward Tampa. When opposing teams don't blitz, Jackson usually picks them apart. He has 25 touchdown passes and one interception against teams dropping into coverage this season. The Bills blitzed Jackson only three times on 18 pass plays in the September matchup, and he went 12-of-15 for 139 yards and two touchdowns against four-man rushes. The Bills can't survive playing their usual style of defense against this version of the Ravens.
Meanwhile, the Rams have revitalized their run game by getting away from the zone concepts McVay excelled with earlier in his career, but that plays into Tampa's strengths. The Bucs are the second-best run defense in terms of success rate against gap runs, limiting opposing teams to a league-low 3.1 yards per carry. They also saw fewer gap runs than any other team, which could be a combination of a small sample and the fact they have immovable object, not that many teams do.
I have serious reservations about the Lions' defense. Can the Packers hold up and shut down the Lions? They'll have to find a way to get pressure.was 9-of-16 for 61 yards when Green Bay pressured him in their two games this season, but he was nearly perfect -- 41-of-47 for 367 yards with four touchdowns and one pick -- when they didn't get home.
It's tough to believe the Ravens will continue to fail so significantly in the red zone against Kansas City, especially with a full season ofadded to the equation. And while Likely didn't have a breakout season after his career-high 111 receiving yards in Week 1, the Chiefs led the NFL in yards allowed and yards per attempt on throws to tight ends in 2024.
Baltimore matches up well on offense with what Kansas City doesn't do consistently. The Ravens have been much improved on defense over the past month, which makes them a scarily complete opponent. And they probably won't hit on only 20% of their red zone possessions moving forward. But the Chiefs are at home, and they have Mahomes and Jones. The Ravens might not have the necessary defenders to keep the Chiefs out of the end zone.
If the blitz isn't working, I'd be worried about the Rams' chances here. They've managed to survive on defense by being extremely fortunate with their red zone performance. They rank 30th in EPA per snap outside the red zone, but that improves to fifth once teams get inside the 20. They've allowed touchdowns on 50% of opposing trips inside the 20, also the fifth-best rate in the league.
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