NFL free agency: Does addition of Kenneth Walker III offset Chiefs' losses?

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NFL free agency: Does addition of Kenneth Walker III offset Chiefs' losses?
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Matt Bowen and Pam Maldonado look at which teams performed the best and worst in free agency and how to bet them.

Free agency is a unique time. Some NFL teams come out spending, others poach a player here or there and some remain mostly on the sidelines. Depending on the magnitude of moves, odds can shift one way or another.

With the majority of player movement behind us until the NFL draft next month, we wanted to look at which teams have improved the most so for this offseason and which ones shifted in the wrong direction. Betting analysts Matt Bowen and Pamela Maldonado break down which teams have had the best and worst offseason thus far and offer their tips for betting them. It's March, so I'm not saying the Titans suddenly became a contender this offseason, but they did get better in a few meaningful ways. Let's start with the obvious defensive problem from last year: the secondary. The Titans allowed 28 points per game and 8.1 yards per pass attempt. Opposing quarterbacks were way too comfortable attacking downfield. Adding cornerbacksdirectly addresses that. Taylor brings a physical, aggressive style that fits what this defense wants to do, while Flott gives Tennessee a legit outside corner who can create disruption at the catch point. Basically, the coverage unit should be far more stable than it was in 2025.also makes sense for a defense that needed more edge pressure, giving Tennessee a proven pass rusher instead of another interior run defender.was often double-teamed last season because there wasn't consistent interior pressure next to him. Franklin-Myers changes that. If the Titans can generate more pressure inside, the entire defense benefits.gives the offense a true slot option and a reliable short-area target, which should help on third downs, where Tennessee converted just 32% of opportunities last year.None of these moves scream blockbuster, but the Titans needed a higher floor across the roster, and these free agency moves moved them closer to that. Their season win total is set at 6.5 juiced to the over , but two truths can be had: that improvements were made and the under is still the likely scenario. Perhaps the draft can flip that switch.is one of the league's best, and he'll play a critical role in managing protections for the anticipated No. 1 overall pick, quarterbackMendoza has the traits to win from the pocket, and the play-action concepts in Kubiak's system will create more defined throws for the rookie. Plus, we will see the skill set of running backthis season in Kubiak's outside zone scheme. Now, I'm not tagging the Raiders as an AFC West contender in '26, but with the free agent additions and a new QB with pro-ready ability, I would think the Raiders can win six football games. So, let's take over 5.5 wins .. He gives that backfield more juice and explosive-play ability. But I look at a defense that traded away star cornerbackThis is still a really good football team, led by one of the league's best coaches in Andy Reid. But in an ultra-competitive AFC West, I could see KC at 9-8 or 10-7. I'm taking under 10.5 wins .. hurts. He recorded 1,107 rushing yards last season and brought the ability to create something when a play broke down.. is a fine rotational running back, but he's not raising the ceiling. It's March, so this isn't panic mode, and the draft could help. But right now, Jacksonville looks more like a team protecting the cap than pushing the roster forward.The lean this early is under 9.5 on the season win total. The Jags jumped from preseason skepticism last year to a 13-4 division winner, without a dominant roster. The pass rush was middle of the pack, the run game graded 26th, and the defense leaned heavily on coverage to hold things together. Subtract the players mentioned without adding impact replacements, and that's not how teams build on a 13-win season.

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