Josh Inglis' NFL TD picks and best bets on NFL TD props for every NFL Week 5 game — plus our best NFL TD parlay!
From Michael Pittman to Quinshon Judkins, Josh Inglis provides his NFL TD picks and best bets on every Week 5 game., we’re back with a game-by-game breakdown of the best TD props across the board. With injuries shaking up depth charts, red-zone roles evolving, and several soft defensive matchups on tap, there are plenty of angles to attack.
From longshot tight ends to WR3 blowup spots, here are the topOffering competitive prices and a deep list of players available, find the end zone each week at the #1 place to bet touchdowns! I'm not expecting much of a drop-off with Dillon Gabriel taking over under center. Cleveland’s defense has a real chance to set the tone in London, especially against a Minnesota Vikings offensive line that just got Carson Wentz battered last week. That could mean short fields and more scoring opportunities for the Browns. This is a strong number for a running back who saw all four Cleveland red-zone carries last week, found the end zone, and now gets a rookie QB making his NFL debut — likely leading to more conservative play-calling near the goal line. Last week, Kenneth Gainwell torched this defense for over 130 total yards and two touchdowns. Even Pittsburgh’s RB2 cashed in on two of his three inside-the-5 carries. Over the past two weeks, no other Browns RB besides Judkins has seen a red-zone touch. As long as Geno Smith is under center, I’m off all Raiders pass-catchers. He went 0-for-6 on throws over eight yards last week—with three interceptions. Not touching that passing game. Instead, I’m targeting the Colts’ air attack — specifically Michael Pittman at +200. Yes, the price has dipped from north of +200 last week, but the matchup more than justifies it. Pittman gets a bottom-10 scoring defense indoors, and he’s scored red-zone TDs in back-to-back games. He remains the clear WR1 in Indy. Adonai Mitchell is coming off a costly blunder, while Alec Pierce is still working through a concussion. Pittman's volume and red-zone usage make this number playable. Also worth noting: the Raiders quietly rank second in EPA/rush and seventh in rush success rate — this could tilt Indy toward the pass even more. I was hoping to grab Justin Fields at +170, but that’s long gone — steamed down to +130 by Wednesday afternoon. If I’m backing anyone else in this offense, I want a big number, and rookie TE Mason Taylor at +360 fits the bill. Taylor saw just one fewer target than Garrett Wilson last week vs. Miami and turned that into 5 catches for 65 yards — both season highs. No red-zone looks yet, but no Jets pass-catcher saw one last week. This matchup is ideal: Dallas has been great at giving up TE volume. Dallas Goedert caught 7 passes in Week 1. The Giants threw for 450 yards in Week 2. Colston Loveland looked set for a big game in Week 3 before exiting early after a 31-yard catch. Last week, Tucker Kraft posted 5 catches for 56 yards. Taylor’s usage is trending up, and +360 is a great price for a player who could see 6–7 targets in a plus matchup. Sometimes you have to lose money to learn a lesson — and I’ve learned mine with Sean Payton’s running back usage. It’s clear he has little interest in featuring J.K. Dobbins near the goal line.him with rookie RJ Harvey, who later hauled in a score and finished just shy of 100 total yards. Harvey saw three red-zone carries and a target, while Dobbins had just one RZ touch. Now, Harvey sits at +350 to score this week. The matchup vs. Philly isn’t ideal, but the Eagles are middle-of-the-pack in scoring defense — and this is a capable offense. With what looks like an emerging red-zone role, that price is simply too big. Lamar Jackson could miss multiple weeks, which means it’s likely Cooper Rush under center for the Ravens — who are banged up and facing a tough test against a strong Houston defense. That doesn’t bother me, because my favorite TD bet in this game is all about the number. Rush is sitting at a massive +1500 to score. That’s rare air for a quarterback TD prop — even Joe Flacco gets a sneak here and there — and this is where he's priced. It’s not a full-unit play, but I’m putting 0.25 units on it to win 3.75 units. I’d take this number for most QBs, but especially for a backup with something to prove in a high-functioning offense. Alvin Kamara saw just one red-zone carry last week, while Kendre Miller handled four — and made the most of them, averaging 7.3 YPC and punching in a touchdown against a tough Bills front. That’s real efficiency near the goal line, and it’s a clear signal the Saints may be shifting their backfield usage. This isn’t the best offense on the slate, but I’d much rather take a swing on Miller at a big price than lay -115 on an ineffective Kamara, or back Cam Skattebo or Daxson Dart . Those numbers are fair for those players, but Miller offers real upside if the Saints are trending away from Kamara and toward their younger RB with nothing to lose and losses piling up. Miller played in a competitive game last week, saw 11 carries, and handled 80% of the team’s red-zone rushes. The Giants might’ve had a feel-good win in Week 4, but they’re still a bottom-tier defense. If Miller holds the same role in Week 5, this price might be 350 points too high even if the Saints change QBs. Chuba Hubbard missed practice on Wednesday, and his injury appears to be getting worse — per HC Dave Canales on Thursday. That’s pushed Rico Dowdle’s TD price down to even money, but I’m passing there. Dowdle isn’t the guy getting the valuable touches. Last week, it was Trevor Etienne who handled both of the RB red-zone carries, despite playing just 17% of snaps. He finished with 7 carries for 33 yards, while Dowdle managed fewer yards on more work. This is a great spot to buy the actual red-zone back in a high-upside matchup. The opposing defense is allowing nearly 30 points per game, and at +550, Etienne offers real value if Hubbard is out or limited. The injury to Bucky Irving is tough to navigate, and so is the Seahawks' RZ role in the backfield. Tampa is not an easy team to run against, so I'm staying away from Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet at their current prices of -120 and +150, respectively. Inside the 10-yard line this year, Seattle WRs have zero targets while the TEs have three. AJ Barner has a TD in Weeks 2 and 4, with both of them coming in the RZ. Elijah Arroyo is also someone to look at for a TD at +550 as he leads the TE group with three RZ targets and matched Barner's route share last week of 69%. His arrow is on the rise. Both are good RZ options in tight vs. a tough run defense. It's a great matchup for them this week after Dallas Goedert went for two TDs vs. this Tampa defense. I'm going 0.62 units on each TE and hopefully profiting 2+ units if just one hits. Injuries in Arizona’s backfield are creating a solid value spot. Emari Demercado opened at +110 to score but drifted to +160 after the Michael Carter hype picked up steam Wednesday — Carter took first-team reps and even hinted he might start.He’s the bigger, more trusted back with 34 carries on the season compared to Carter’s four. Carter has mostly been a practice-squad body, while Demercado handled all the red-zone touches last week and scored on a reception inside the 10.The Chargers got punched in the mouth last week, but this sets up as a prime bounce-back spot. They face a secondary ranked 28th in EPA per dropback and allowing a league-high 13.3 yards per completion. This is a get-right matchup for the passing game. While Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston have been more productive early on, I’m backing the longest-priced Chargers WR to score — and this week, that’s Ladd McConkey at +200, compared to +155 for the other two. McConkey continues to run the most routes among the trio and is due for a breakout. He opened the season as short as +140, so this move to +200 is a strong buy-low opportunity. The Chargers lead the NFL in pass rate and are first in pass rate over expected at +8.8%. I’ll take the WR with the best price in the league’s most pass-heavy offense — especially at home, indoors, in a clear bounce-back spot. The Lions have the highest team total on the Week 5 slate at 30.5 points, and the matchup sets up as one of the best scoring spots of the week. With that in mind, there’s not much value left in the usual suspects — but WR3 Kalif Raymond is an exception. Raymond has clearly taken over the WR3 role, running three times more routes than rookie Isaac TeSlaa last week. He also adds sneaky upside via special teams — his punt return TD last week still counts for TD scorer bets. There’s also blowout potential here, which could keep Raymond on the field late. On the other side, the Bengals’ offense is one to fade with Jake Browning at QB, which could lead to short fields for Detroit and more scoring chances. I love a good narrative bet, but I can be guilty of diving in too hard to them. There are layers to this one, and it's just not Diggs returning to the Bills. He has already faced them in 2024, where he caught six passes for 82 yards as a Texan, but this is his return to Highmark Stadium. Last week, Diggs shot up to 84% route share and led the team in targets, yards, routes, and air yards. It's not a tough WR stable to ascend, and he may be WR1 entering a big prime-time game. He went 6/101/0 in a blowout win last week. The Chiefs remain one of the pass-heaviest teams in the league — 10th in overall pass rate and 2nd in pass rate over expected. A big reason? Their run game has been shaky dating back to last season. That’s opened the door for rookie RB Brashard Smith, who continues to earn more reps each week but can still contribute in the passing game. His snap share jumped to 25% last week, and he turned 4 carries and 4 targets into 36 total yards, including a red-zone target. Andy Reid said he’s looking to get Smith “into spots where he can do some things”— and that’s exactly what I want to see in Week 5 on Monday night. With Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt ahead of him, Smith still has a path to leapfrog one if Reid trusts him in high-leverage spots. It’s a tough matchup against a sneaky-good Jags defense, but if Smith is getting any red-zone usage, this offense has the creativity to get him the ball in space.Cam Skattebo has moved to a parlay-piece price, but he is the man in NYG right now and should see more work with Malik Nabers out. Tetairoa McMillan is my favorite WR TD of the week, but his price has been moving too short to add as a solo play. Michael Pittman is my next WR favorite in a great matchup. Javonte Williams will get his. He has been consistent, and the Jets got gauged last week.: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links. Josh Inglis is a rising star in the sports betting content space, specializing in MLB, NHL, and NFL markets. Since joining Covers in 2019, Josh has focused his betting expertise on player props and derivative markets, finding them easier for beating the closing line compared to sides and totals. His engaging analysis and content have been showcased on major networks such as TSN, VSiN, BetMGM Network, and NBC. Josh is a prolific bettor, tracking over 2,500 bets annually and he consistently shares his results through monthly transparency reports. At Covers, he is renowned for his MLB release shows and NHL Puck Props, which are integral parts of the site's live content lineup. Before his tenure at Covers, Josh spent a decade teaching while pursuing sports media on the side. He has also contributed to live global senior-level broadcasts for the WBSC. Josh advocates for sports bettors to bet early, emphasizing the importance of securing better numbers by beating the public to the market. He also advises having multiple sportsbook accounts to ensure access to the best possible odds.Copyright © 1995 - 2025 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved. 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