Josh Inglis' NFL TD picks and best bets on NFL TD props for every NFL Week 1 game — plus our best NFL TD parlay!
Josh Inglis is back with his favorite touchdown props for each game on the Week 3 slate, featuring Tucker Kraft remaining a top threat in the red zone.Week 3 is here, and we’re coming in hot with +15.5 units through two weeks of touchdown props.
Opt-in now I’m taking a square play in the battle of the backups — and it’s not Jordan Mason, who burned me last week.will have Jake Browning under center, and while Browning is bound to make mistakes, he’s capable of moving the offense. Brown should be busy on Sunday against a Vikings defense that’s stronger against the pass than the run. At -120, there’s not much tax to pay for a back who handles all the RB carries and has taken all seven of the team’s red-zone attempts. With Browning at quarterback, I’d also expect Zac Taylor to keep things conservative near the goal line. This is a slight price adjustment — Brown was as short as -160 with Joe Burrow starting — but the switch to Browning might actually boost his volume, including in the passing game. There's only one offense worth backing in this game — and it’s not the Browns going up against Green Bay’s tough defense. With Jayden Reed out after breaking his collarbone last week, there’s an opportunity for more targets to go around, and tight endstands out as the best value at +170 or better for a score. He’s led all Packers skill players in snap share for two straight weeks and posted a team-high 79% route participation in Week 2. Kraft found the end zone again last week and racked up 124 receiving yards on seven targets, including two in the red zone. He’s now caught two touchdowns on just three red-zone targets this season. Given all the wide receiver rotation in Green Bay, Kraft offers the most reliable role at this price and is the best TD bet on the board. The Titans rank 29th in EPA per rush and now face the No. 3 offense in EPA per play. They’ll have to sell out to stop Jonathan Taylor, who’s racked up over 300 total yards through two weeks. Surprisingly, Taylor has zero rushing touchdowns this season—and at -190, there’s no value in backing him to score.stands out at +185. He’s taken 45% of the Colts’ red-zone carries and four of their six attempts from inside the 5-yard line. That usage alone makes his price a strong buy in Week 3. Head coach Shane Steichen, who helped develop the Tush Push as Philly’s OC, clearly likes using his quarterback in short-yardage spots. Last week, Indy ran QB sneaks on three straight plays near the goal line . With the Titans forced to key on Taylor, Jones has multiple paths to a touchdown — designed runs, scrambles, or a call at the 1-yard line. Marcus Mariota was my first look, but at +290, I want a better number on the likely Washington starter. Ashton Jeanty at +100 is a fair price, but Pete Carroll hasn’t exactly followed through on his coachspeak. He talked up 20 touches for the rookie in Week 2, but Jeanty ended up with just 11 carries and three catches, while also losing work to Zamir White., and Dont'e Thornton all posted a route share of 85% or higher. At +350, Tucker is my favorite TD bet. Tucker, the No. 2 WR in this offense right now, saw eight targets and even had a carry for seven yards in Week 2 after scoring in Week 1. The Raiders are throwing at a 66% rate this season, and Geno Smith has already dropped back 77 times. Jeanty at +100 is the safer option, but with Tucker’s route share, involvement, and the +350 price, he’s the longer shot I want to back this week. I'm not very confident in this game overall. The Patriots are spreading the ball around too much to trust any one pass-catcher, and the backfield rotation between Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson is tough to predict., who gets a shot at a bottom-10 defense missing OLB Alex Highsmith and could also be missing three other starters. There’s not a ton of value left at +300 for a Maye anytime TD — I'd play it down to +270/+280 — but his goal-line usage is hard to ignore. Last week, New England’s RBs had four red-zone carries, but none inside the 5-yard line. Maye had three red-zone runs and scored on a six-yard TD. He finished with 10 total carries, and Pittsburgh already gave up two rushing TDs to Justin Fields in Week 1. If CB Christian Gonzalez is out again, DK Metcalf is also in play at +145 — worth a look down to +135.Through two games, Allgeier and Robinson are tied with two carries each inside the 5-yard line, but Allgeier is the only one who has converted those into touchdowns. Offensive coordinator Zac Robinson seems more comfortable using Allgeier in short-yardage situations — he has double the number of carries inside the 10 compared to Bijan. Allgeier also closed out the Sunday night game and finished with 16 carries. Even before the final two drives, he had 7 carries to Bijan’s 18, suggesting a roughly 70/30 split — with red-zone work included. This sets up well in a game where Atlanta could once again be running the clock late. At +260 to score, Allgeier offers value in a run-heavy offense. Only three teams in the NFL are running at a higher rate than Atlanta’s 50%, so there’s enough volume for the backup to stay involved. This TD prop opened at +140 last week, and I hit it with a five-star approach. He closed around even money, so I’m surprised to see it back at this price. Bhayshul Tuten is getting some run after the Tank Bigsby trade, but he wasn’t a major factor on early downs., Etienne is one of just three backs in the league to gain positive yards on 90% of his carries. He’s also averaging 3.4 yards before contact, second in the NFL behind Jahmyr Gibbs . In Liam Coen’s offense, trusting the lead back is easy — especially near the goal line. Only James Cook, Jonathan Taylor, and Josh Jacobs have more red-zone carries than Etienne this season.at +650. Based on his Week 2 usage and this price, it's a convincing Week 3 TD prop and my favorite play in this game. Corum saw a bigger role last week, playing 30% of the snaps and closing out the game with a goal-line touchdown in the fourth quarter. Kyren Williams is coming off a 351-carry season and is averaging just 3.8 yards per carry through two games. Certainly not explosive. Of the five carries inside the 10-yard line this year, Corum has two , while Williams has three . Both are trusted inside the 5-yard line. Head coach Sean McVay also said after the game that the 70/30 split between Williams and Corum is “much more in alignment” with how he wants the backfield to look going forward. On the other side, Davante Adams has five red-zone targets already — four from inside the 5 — but hasn’t converted. At +150, that number feels too short in a tough road matchup against a solid defense. The Bucs are in rough shape on the offensive line. Starting guard Cody Mauch is out for the season, and both starting tackles remain questionable for Week 3.has been under constant pressure — he leads the league in pressure rate at 43.9%, despite averaging just 2.27 seconds to throw. That kind of chaos has forced Mayfield to use his legs. He ranks fifth among QBs in scramble yards and has rushed for 30+ in both games this season. While he hasn’t found the end zone yet, he’s +500 to score a TD this week — a number that feels too long given his usage. Mayfield ran for three scores last year, and with the Jets bringing more pressure, he might have to take matters into his own hands again. The Seahawks have been far more effective on the ground this season, ranking 11th in EPA per rush compared to 29th in EPA per dropback.generated plenty of buzz after Week 2, rushing for 105 yards despite playing just 35% of the snaps. That number should rise this Sunday at home against the Saints, where Seattle is a 7-point favorite. Zach Charbonnet, who’s been splitting snaps with Walker, missed Wednesday’s practice with a foot injury. That opens the door for a bigger workload for Walker in what should be a neutral-to-positive game script. He wasIn the red zone, Walker is averaging an absurd 6.6 yards per carry. It’s a bit of a mystery why Charbonnet has been getting some of the tough carries. If Charbonnet is ruled out, expect Walker’s TD price to move quickly — potentially dropping to around -145. The Chargers lead the league in Pass Rate Over Expected at +11.9%, and their passing attack is spreading the ball well., and Keenan Allen were the top three targeted players in Week 2. All three have topped 100 receiving yards on the season, and the group has combined for five touchdowns — though McConkey has yet to score. My approach to betting Chargers TDs: target the longest-priced wideout of the three. Last week, that was Johnston at +250, and he cashed. This week, I’m going back to him at +235. Johnston leads the WR group with three touchdowns in three games and boasted a 93% route share in Week 2. The run game isn’t clicking for the Chargers right now, but grabbing a starting receiver in this pass-heavy offense at +200 or better is the play. I’m also not sold on this Denver defense — it faced Cam Ward and Daniel Jones to open the year, then gave up 470+ yards to the Colts last week. The Cowboys let Russell Wilson go from the worst QB in Week 1 to throwing for 450 yards last week. Their pass defense has been awful — ranking 31st in EPA per dropback and 30th in success rate vs. the pass. The Bears aren't much better, sitting 30th in EPA per dropback. This sets up perfectly to target some pass catchers in what could be a high-scoring game.left last week's game with a neck injury but was listed as limited on Wednesday’s walkthrough — a good sign for his availability on Sunday. If he's active, +400 for a TD is my favorite Dallas bet in this potential shootout. He's had multiple carries each week and was already at four catches for 47 yards and a TD before exiting the last game. If Turpin is out, Jalen Tolbert at the same price becomes a solid pivot.at +155. I wouldn’t go shorter than +140, but he’s clearly the WR1 in this offense — drawing 30% of targets and 40% of the air yards. Odunze also has had three of the Bears’ five WR red-zone targets, while their tight ends have yet to see a single red-zone look this season. The 49ers listed eight players as DNPs on Wednesday’s injury report, including Brock Purdy, who’s questionable. That makes it tough to bet on San Francisco TD props, especially with Christian McCaffrey sitting at -230 anytime — a tough price to justify., who’s available at +105 after closing at -155 last week against Carolina. That’s a 50-point swing despite the upgrade in opponent. Yes, it’s the 49ers, but they’ve faced Sam Darnold and Spencer Rattler so far — I’m not sold on their defense yet. Conner is technically splitting time with Trey Benson, but it’s Conner handling the early-down work and dominating carries. He had 11 carries to Benson’s three last week. More importantly, Conner has all of the RB carries inside the 5-yard line and five of the team’s seven red-zone rushing attempts. Russell Wilson had the New York offense rolling last week with 506 total yards and 37 points against the Cowboys. It won’t be as easy on Sunday night, but rookie RB Skattebo logged a 51% snap share, out-carried Tyrone Tracy 11 to 5, and added three targets in the passing game. Most importantly, he’s been the go-to back in scoring range — he’s the only New York RB with any red-zone carries , and he converted one of two attempts inside the 5-yard line last week. His TD price is a buy at +180 or better. This could be the last week we see the market this far off — Skattebo is still listed at 100/1 for Offensive Rookie of the Year despite an expanding role in what could be an underrated offense if Wilson holds it together. This game is set up to be a shootout, with a Week 3-high total of 53 points. It’s indoors and features two top-5 offenses in EPA per play. You can’t go too wrong targeting TD props in this Monday night matchup. Jahmyr Gibbs is a solid option at -120, but David Montgomery has been the one getting the valuable goal-line work — three carries inside the 5-yard line compared to zero for Gibbs. At +115, Montgomery looks like the better value between the Detroit backs.stands out at +550. He’s running the third-most routes among Ravens WRs, with Baltimore using 3-WR sets around 50% of the time. Last week, he played 50% of snaps with a 47% route share — both increases — and turned that into two catches and a TD. Baltimore’s lower-end receivers combined for four TDs last week, as the team showed little interest in running near the goal line. So far this season, Baltimore has just six red-zone rush attempts vs. five pass attempts. Lamar Jackson already has six passing TDs, while the team has only three total rushing scores. Wallace at +550 offers more upside than someone like DeAndre Hopkins, and Jameson Williams at +220 is also in play.The Ghost Leg has cashed for us in back-to-back weeks, but with this week’s requirement of a TNF SGP at three times my usual unit size, I’m passing. Kenneth Walker could play a major role Sunday against the Saints in what projects to be a run-heavy game.Javonte Williams should get his in a game with a 50.5-point total, while Daniel Jones provides the TD boost this parlay needs. I like his goal-line role in this offense, and at +185, he offers better value than Jonathan Taylor at -195 for this SGP.: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links. Josh Inglis is a rising star in the sports betting content space, specializing in MLB, NHL, and NFL markets. Since joining Covers in 2019, Josh has focused his betting expertise on player props and derivative markets, finding them easier for beating the closing line compared to sides and totals. His engaging analysis and content have been showcased on major networks such as TSN, VSiN, BetMGM Network, and NBC. Josh is a prolific bettor, tracking over 2,500 bets annually and he consistently shares his results through monthly transparency reports. At Covers, he is renowned for his MLB release shows and NHL Puck Props, which are integral parts of the site's live content lineup. Before his tenure at Covers, Josh spent a decade teaching while pursuing sports media on the side. He has also contributed to live global senior-level broadcasts for the WBSC. Josh advocates for sports bettors to bet early, emphasizing the importance of securing better numbers by beating the public to the market. He also advises having multiple sportsbook accounts to ensure access to the best possible odds.Copyright © 1995 - 2025 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved. 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