Newsdeck: Trump Set to Become $100 Billion Man as U.S. Trade Gap Surges By Bloomberg
If the trends of the past year and economists’ expectations hold true, trade data to be released Wednesday will show the U.S.’s deficit in goods and services with the world topped $600 billion in 2018. That means Trump’s presidency will have seen the U.S. trade shortfall — the main metric by which he judges countries to be winning or losing — grow by more than $100 billion.
The U.S. trade deficit’s biggest contraction on record came in 2009 when it shrank by more than $300 billion in a single year as a result of the recession then under way — and the resulting collapse in U.S. demand for imported goods. The main long-term driver of persistent trade deficits since 1975 has been the gap between the U.S.’s low savings rate and its attractiveness as an investment destination, fueled partly by the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency. That in turn leads to a stronger dollar, which in itself helps increase the trade deficit by lowering the real cost of imports and increasing the local-currency cost of American goods in overseas markets.
Trump’s supporters insist he’s tackling that via his trade negotiations with China and other U.S. trading partners. They also point to his renegotiation of Nafta as something that will help reduce the U.S. trade deficit in the long run.
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