New Zealand's hot migration risks fanning inflation, forcing rates even higher

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New Zealand's hot migration risks fanning inflation, forcing rates even higher
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Gastroenterologist Wesley Kasen arrived in Hawke’s Bay New Zealand in February with his wife Marnie, two kids and dog from Colorado. Their arrival filled a vacancy at the local hospital.

The Kasens are part of a migrant boom helping to ease the country's acute labour shortages - a relief for firms desperate to fill vacancies and keep a lid on wages but which economists warn risks fanning inflation and keeping rates higher for longer.

However, it may not be so easy for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which has noted that rising long-term net migration could boost activity and inflation, with surging migration inflows highlighted in robust labour market data this week. "If the demand impulse overrules the supply effects it would take inflation longer to fall to the RBNZ’s target and could even necessitate more tightening than anyone is so far bargaining on," said Stephen Toplis, head of research at the Bank of New Zealand, in a note to clients.

It is largely good news for the government, which has introduced new policies to fill job gaps that businesses say were stymieing growth, although any significant rise in house prices will play badly for voters.

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