A Trump and AMLO meet up might save the new Nafta
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Among the Detroit automakers, Fitch views General Motors as the most exposed to tariffs on vehicles produced in Mexico, followed by Fiat and Ford. About 26%, 24%, and 10% of GM’s, Fiat’s, and Ford’s 2018 North American production, respectively, was in Mexico. The self-described “Tariff Man” has gone ahead with threats before, including last month’s threat to raise tariffs from 10% to 25% on Chinese imports. More tariffs are highly likely on China goods coming into U.S. ports, meaning everything shipped out of China into the U.S. will face as much as a 25% port duty at some point this year.
Mexico deported a massive number of migrants from central America last year, and is housing thousands of them at migrant centers in border cities like Tijuana. A sit-down between the two, if more than a mere photo op, would be as big a shot in the arm to Wall Street as Powell’s rate-cut chitchat on Tuesday.
President Donald Trump isn't just the Tariff Man, he is the Disruptor-in-Chief, impacting trade flows and causing markets to think of a world where the U.S. puts 25% tariffs on everything.Even if USMCA finally gets the all-clear in Congress, Trump’s tariffs would make the deal moot. Low- to no-tariff entry for goods between the three North American trade partners would no longer exist for Mexico, faced with China-like tariffs.
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