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New Model Finds Shutting Down U.S. Even One Week Earlier Could Have Cut Death Toll in Half

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New Model Finds Shutting Down U.S. Even One Week Earlier Could Have Cut Death Toll in Half
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The data reaffirms the need for decisive leadership from engaged public officials when the next spike comes.

These numbers will surely be debated, discussed, and dismissed by some, but as we collectively reemerge from isolation, they must help inform our collective decision-making in the months and even years to come.

The first time around, in early March, America’s leaders floundered in different ways in the face of the coming pandemic. “Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on,” Trumpon March 9, minimizing the potential impact of the virus. “At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!” A week later, on March 16, the president was telling Americans to stay home to save lives. In New York, the city’s mayor Bill de Blasio didn’t close schools until March 15 and Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s stay-at-home order wasn’t in place until March 22. We obviously know much more about the virus now and much more about ourselves, what we’re capable of when faced with individual and collective harm. While there appears to be a summer reprieve coming from isolation and a bulging curve, the Columbia model is a reminder it’s not just how we respond that matters—it’s when.Readers like you make our work possible. Help us continue to provide the reporting, commentary, and criticism you won’t find anywhere else.

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