U.S. braces for major North Korean weapons test as Trump’s diplomacy fizzles
WASHINGTON — U.S. military and intelligence officials tracking North Korea’s actions by the hour said they are bracing for an imminent test of an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching U.S. shores but appear resigned to the fact that President Donald Trump has no good options to stop it.
The administration’s argument has now changed. Should Kim resume tests, U.S. officials said, it will be a sign that he truly feels jammed and has concluded Washington will not lift crushing sanctions on his impoverished nation anytime soon. Story continuesBeneath the recent threats is the onset of a cold reality: In the 18 months after Trump and Kim first met in Singapore, with declarations of warmth not seen since the suspension of the Korean War in 1953, the North has bolstered its arsenal of missiles and its stockpile of bomb-ready nuclear material.
“I think part of this may be bluff on their part,” John Bolton, the former national security adviser, said to NPR on Thursday. “They think the president’s desperate for a deal, and if they put an artificial time constraint on it, they may think they’re going to get a better deal. We’ll just have to wait and see.A new element of the playbook could be that Kim is calculating that impeachment has weakened Trump, making him more desperate for a policy victory.
The expected North Korean escalation will leave Trump with an unpalatable choice. He could reprise his alarming threats of military action from late 2017, infusing the 2020 election year with a sense of crisis, which could cost him votes — and risk real conflict. After exchanging warm letters, the leaders met again in Hanoi, with Trump offering a grand bargain — an end to all sanctions for full disarmament. The president even offered to help build hotels along North Korea’s east coast.
Now Kim finds himself empty-handed, unable to stride into the party plenum in triumph or deliver a pronouncement of victory Jan. 1. Backed into a corner, he is trying once again to use his main leverage — the threat of weapons tests or military action — to coerce Trump into sanctions relief, analysts said.
Kim could choose to launch a satellite rather than an intercontinental ballistic missile on the bet that might push Trump to loosen sanctions without inciting a violent reaction. The U.S.’ efforts to maintain a common front against the North may be further complicated next week when President Xi Jinping of China hosts a summit with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan and President Moon Jae-in of South Korea. Trump’s efforts to get the South to cover the full cost of U.S. troops based there has strained relations between the allies.
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