A new poll found that a major share of the public thinks the economy is already in a recession, even though it is not by the common understanding of the term.
The poll illustrates some key differences between political allegiances. While 57% of Republicans think the economy is already in a recession, just 39% of Democrats believe the same. The data could indicate that GOP messaging in the lead-up to the midterm electionsMajor economic indicators show that the country is not in a recession. The two biggest indicators of recession — gross domestic product and employment — have been performing well over the past several months.
The group broadly defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.” Additionally, the labor market has remained unusually hot despite a barrage of aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve over the past year. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5% last month — tied for the lowest since the early 1950s.
Additionally, the Monday survey showed the belief that the economy is in a recession is not stratified by income level. Among those earning less than $50,000 per year, 46% said that the economy is in a recession. That is not too far apart from the 42% of those earning in excess of $100,000 who reported the same.
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