Jason Ence's NCAAF Week 15 picks expect the UNLV Rebels to pull off the upset and take down Boise State.
Ashton Jeanty has been running all over the competition this season... except for UNLV. The Rebels will once again shut down Boise State's main man and take the MWC.There are only nine games on the college football slate as we head into the conference championship weekend, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t still an opportunity for us to make profit on some underdogs.
Western won the game by keeping the Gamecock offense on the sideline and keeping its defense fresh. The Toppers had the ball for over 37 minutes, converted seven of 20 attempts on third down, and punished a Jacksonville State defense ranked 96th in total success and 85th in EPA/pass. The Broncos also gained just 5.4 yards per play on the day. While that’s solid, it’s almost a full yard less than what the Rebels gained per snap. The Broncos outgained UNLV by only 27 yards despite running 15 more plays.
UNLV has an offense that can move the ball, and it's already done so against this Boise State defense that ranks 101st in EPA/pass and 63rd in success rate on dropbacks. Hajj-Malik Williams has thrown just four picks all season, and he’s backed by a rushing offense ranked 24th in EPA/rush and 21st in success rate.
He wasn’t alone, though. The Bobcats played their worst offensive game of the season. Ohio’s first four drives were all three-and-out, and the offense didn’t pick up a first down until 23 minutes into the game.
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