Breaking down the latest odds to win the NBA's MVP award after Victor Wembanyama cut into SGA's lead with just a few weeks left in the regular season.
The NBA MVP is up for grabs over the final weeks of the regular season, as recent movement in the odds shifted San Antonio Spurs star Victor Wembanyama to a close second behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander with the Spurs just two games out of the No.
1 spot in the Western Conference. After sitting behind Los Angeles Lakers star Luka Doncic in the odds for most of the last two weeks, Wemby has skyrocketed to +210 to win MVP with eight games left in the regular season. Afrom the NBA ranked Wembanyama ahead of SGA in the MVP race, which could have caused some of the shift in this market. Gilgeous-Alexander remains the odds-on favorite to win MVP, but both Doncic and Nikola Jokic have fallen off in the latest odds. This appears to be a two-player race between Shai and Wemby down the stretch of the regular season, even though Doncic has moved the Lakers into the No. 3 spot in the Western Conference.Just a few weeks ago, Gilgeous-Alexander was -1200 to win the league’s MVP and was as high as -700 before the Thunder lost to the Boston Celtics and saw their lead shrink to two games for the top seed in the West. SGA still has an implied probability of 73.33 percent to win the league’s MVP, but there is clear momentum going towards Wembanyama at this point in the season. If OKC can secure the No. 1 seed in the West, it should go a long way for Shai’s case, but the Thunder have the toughest schedule remaining in the NBA this season, Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 31.4 points, 4.4 rebounds and 6.6 assists per game while shooting 55.3 percent from the field and 37.9 percent from 3. He needs to play in three more games to be eligible to win MVP this season.Wembanyama is the clear favorite to win the Defensive Player of the Year award, and he’s looking to become the first player since Giannis Antetokounmpo to win MVP and DPOY in the same season. Wemby’s odds have skyrocketed from +1500 to +210 in the last few days, giving him an implied probability of over 32 percent to win MVP. The Spurs star has played in 59 games this season, so he’ll need to play in six of the Spurs’ next eight to be eligible for this award. Wembanyama’s offensive numbers aren’t nearly as good as SGA or Doncic, but he is the best defensive player in the NBA and it’s not really close. That has made the argument for Wembanyama an interesting one, especially when one considers where the Spurs were expected to finish this season. San Antonio went from a potential play-in team to clearly the No. 2 seed – or better – in the West. The Spurs are also 4-1 against the Thunder this season, which certainly helps the argument for Wembanyama over SGA.The Lakers have flown up the standings to the No. 3 seed in the West, but Doncic has fallen back in the latest MVP odds with Wemby’s meteoric rise. Doncic is having an amazing offensive season, averaging 33.7 points, 7.8 rebounds and 8.2 assists per game while shooting 47.6 percent from the field and 36.6 percent from beyond the arc. The Lakers have won nine of their last 10 games, giving them a 1.5-game lead on Denver for the No. 3 seed in the conference. However, with the Spurs and Thunder both knocking on the door of 60 wins, it may be tough for voters to justify Doncic over SGA or Wemby in this race.$200 in bonus bets instantly.Peter is a senior editor for Sports Illustrated Betting. He has worked as a writer and editor for BetSided, NBC Sports, the Connecticut Sun and the Meriden Record-Journal covering the NBA, WNBA, NFL, MLB, and more. A New York City resident, he is a hoops fanatic with a soft spot for his New York Knicks.
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