Around 66% of college basketball players who meet four specific criteria play five or more years in the NBA or are currently in the league. Who are the current players that qualify?
With the 2024 NBA Draft a little over a month away, everyone wants to find a diamond in the rough or feel more certain about players in a class that seems to be filled with uncertainty. In order to do this, it has become increasingly popular to design statistical queries to identify NBA talent.
Back in April, we released a post that reviewed which players are currently meeting the threshold for thequery, which has a "stick" rate of 78% and focuses on freshmen. Earlier this month, this was built upon by discussing tBefore we dive into the statistical analysis, it’s important to define what “stick” means in my study. In this case, I considered a prospect to “stick” if they played at least five seasons in the NBA. Prospects who qualified during the 2020-21 NCAA season met the criteria of “sticking” if they are still in the league, due to the impossibility of them reaching five NBA seasons.sophomores throughout the 12 college basketball seasons from 2010-2021 who played at least 40% of their team's minutes, had a Box Plus-Minus of at least +10, and met the minimum athletic threshold of four total dunks.The purpose of this query is to find juniors with production so impactful that it has the potential to reliably predict NBA talent. Juniors who meet this criteria are being trusted to play almost a majority of their team's minutes, meet a certain production threshold, and also meet a minimum athletic threshold throughout the season.Below are the players who met the Productive Junior Query from 2010-2021 and ended up "sticking" in the NBA:Four players met the criteria in 2021: Oscar Tshiebwe, David Roddy, E.J. Liddell, and Orlando Robinson. Oscar Tshiebwe has played only 42 minutes for the Pacers this season, but has been dominant in the G League. He16.4 points and 16.1 rebounds in 27.2 minutes per game this season for the Fort Wayne Mad Ants. The former Kentucky big man was named to the NBA G League6.7 points per game in 18 minutes per game for the Grizzlies during his rookie season, then averaged 23 minutes and 8.4 points per game this past season for the Grizzlies before being traded to the Phoenix Suns in February. With more time and adjustment, Roddy figures to contribute more to the Suns' gameplan next season. Liddell was drafted with the 41st pick in the 2022 NBA Draft by the New Orleans Pelicans, but unfortunately suffered a torn ACL during a Summer League game prior to his rookie year. Liddell only17.7 points, 7.8 rebounds, 1.9 blocks, and 0.6 steals on over 50% from the field in 26 G League games. Robinson has averaged 10.9 minutes per game and appeared in 67 games for the Miami Heat over his first two years in the league. The 7-footer out of Fresno State also appeared in nine G League games this past season,Five players met the criteria in 2022: Trayce Jackson-Davis, Zach Edey, Jaylen Clark, Adama Sanogo, and Ryan Kalkbrenner. To start, Jackson-Davis was an important part of the Warriors' rotation this season. He appeared in 68 games for Golden State, starting 16 of those games, and averaging 16.6 minutes per game played. Edey won the Naismith award for the second year in a row and led the Purdue Boilermakers to the championship game. He's currently projected to go in the first round of the 2024 NBA Draft. It should be noted that he also met the criteria for theAfter being drafted by the Minnesota Timberwolves with the 53rd pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, Clark has not yet appeared in an NBA game after unfortunately tearing his achilles at the end of the UCLA season.in nine games for the Bulls this season and averaged 7.3 minutes per game in those appearances. The former UConn big alsoin 29 games for the Windy City Bulls, averaging 30.3 minutes, 22 points, 12.7 rebounds, 0.7 steals, and 1.1 blocks per game while shooting 61.5% from the field. Lastly, after testing the waters for this upcoming draft, Ryan Kalkbrenner ultimately decided to return to Creighton for his fifth season. He17 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 3.1 blocks per game this past season for the Bluejays. He also qualified for theThree players qualified for the Productive Junior Query this past season: DaRon Holmes II, Devin Carter, and Jonathan Mogbo.20 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 0.9 steals, and 2.1 blocks per game. Perhaps most importantly, the Dayton big man's ability to stretch the floor took a leap this past season. He went from converting 31.6% of his threes and 67% of his free throw attempts his sophomore season to shooting 71.3% from the free throw line and 38.6% from deep this season on 83 attempts. Holmes II also qualified for thehis freshman season, which has a 78% "stick" rate. Holmes is currently projected as a late second round pick, but has as good of a chance as anyone to outperform his draft stock.19.7 points, 3.6 assists , 8.7 rebounds, 1.8 steals , and one block per game this past season for Providence. He convertedof his attempts at the rim , 37.7% of his threes , and 75% of his attempts at the free throw line this past season. Lastly, Carter was unassisted on an impressive14.2 points, 10.1 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.6 steals, and 0.8 blocks per game this past season at San Francisco. He also recorded a 14.5 offensive rebounding percentage, 29.3 defensive rebounding percentage, 24.5 assist percentage, 3.2 steal percentage, and 3.5 block percentage. Lastly, Mogbo has convertedof his attempts at the rim this season and 31.3% on non-rim twos. He's currently a projected late second round pick. A player who hit the Productive Junior Query that is still in college to keep an eye on: Ryan Kalkbrenner. Players in this draft class who have hit the Productive Junior Query in the past: Zach Edey, DaRon Holmes II, Devin Carter, and Jonathan Mogbo. is best used when attempting to identify talent or when weighing the potential risks of drafting a player. For example, if a college basketball player meets the four criteria during the season, then the player may be worth looking into. Similarly, if you're considering a player with a second round pick who's met the Productive Junior Query, it may be a sense of comfort that 66% of players to hit the same criteria play five-plus seasons in the NBA.of second round picks from the 1990-2017 NBA Drafts ended up playing at least five NBA seasons with a career 10-24 minutes per gameJordan is a senior at Cornell University where he is an analytics consultant for the men’s basketball team and Co-President of the Cornell ILR Sports Business Society. He has also interned for Sports Aptitude, where he helped interview former front office members and current professional basketball players with the goal of improving the pre-draft process.
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