It is Vladimir Putin’s inability to tolerate an independent Ukraine, not NATO’s presence in eastern Europe, that has driven this brutal invasion.
The second anniversary of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in February prompted renewed debate about the war’s origins.
Russia is putting this ideology into practice in the one fifth of Ukraine’s territory it occupies. These south-eastern regions are being forcibly integrated into Russia in a primitive land grab of the kind, Russia is wiping out Ukrainian identity and culture, imposing Russian schooling, media, indoctrination and institutions, along with massive population transfers.
Nor did Putin protest much when long-standing neutrals Finland and Sweden rushed to join NATO in the wake of the 2022 invasion. “There is no threat”, he said, despite having 1500 kilometres added to Russia’s border with NATO.NATO simply did not have a hostile posture towards Russia in the post-Cold War period, even if there were differences on some issues. NATO and Russia established a joint Council in 1997. Russia was welcomed into the G8, the G20 and the WTO.
As for the threat posed by the long-term prospect of Ukraine joining NATO, the US doesn’t need bases in Ukraine to target Russia with nuclear missiles. By 2022, there was no prospect of Ukraine joining: it could trigger NATO’s mutual defence obligations given Russian forces had been in Ukraine since 2014.The relatively mild responses to Russia’s invasions of Georgia in 2008 and Crimea in 2014 also underlined the lack of any real threat to a country with 6,000 nuclear weapons.
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