The Indian general election is as big as if every country in the EU, plus America, Canada, Mexico, Japan and South Korea were all to vote at once
’s seat tally there by nearly half, stripping away its majority. Chastened, the pair, which represent two different slices of the lower castes, are now in alliance.
Excepting astrologers, Indians understandably tend to be wary of political predictions. In the past three general elections, professional pollsters have fallen wide of the mark. Still, there is consensus about the broader outcomes of the contest. No one expects the stars to align so perfectly for Narendra Modi, the prime minister, as they did in 2014, when thewon 282 seats on its own.
Despite holding so many cards, Mr Modi had begun to look vulnerable earlier this year. Congress appeared to rise from the dead in December, topplinggovernments in local elections in three states across central India. Fatigue with Mr Modi was growing, as well as anger among such important groups as farmers, small traders, minorities and the better-educated. The lapdog media grew noticeably less fawning.
Mr Modi has mercilessly milked nationalist sentiment, threatening to rain missiles on the enemy in a “night of killing” and scorning his opponents as wobbly-kneed defeatists. Although many Indians, especially those far from the border with Pakistan, find local issues more pressing, the unrelenting bombast has flummoxed Mr Modi’s opponents. Instead of coalescing, they have drifted apart.
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