The NASDAQ 100 initially was shocked by the jobs number, and perhaps more importantly, the spike in interest rates that came out the United States. Forex stocks
sitting just below the 200 day EMA is a good sign, but we still have to look at this through the prism of a market that had pulled back 50% and then broke down. A lot of this is going to come down to interest rates and whether or not they are moving rather quickly. If they are, that will almost certainly cause some major problems. The idea of the NASDAQ 100 taking off to the upside also assumes that there is a certain amount of stability economically.
If we break down below the bottom of the candlestick, then we will more than likely enter consolidation underneath, which extends down to roughly 13,700 or so. It could be very noisy in that area but breaking down below that level would be catastrophic. It is a little early to call what is going to happen next, but we have a couple of major areas to pay close attention to.
I anticipate that more than anything else we are likely to see a lot of choppy behavior in the short term, allowing the market to grind away as we try to figure out what happens next. The shape of the candlestick is encouraging, but we are sitting just below a gap and the 200 day EMA, which could work against the value of the market from a technical analysis standpoint. While the NASDAQ 100 has been a consistent winner over the last 13 years, the Federal Reserve stance changing will have a definitive effect on this market and things will have changed as a result.
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