NASA rules out 2032 lunar impact for asteroid 2024 YR4 after new James Webb observations refine its orbit.
Scientists using NASA ’s James Webb Space Telescope have ruled out the possibility that asteroid 2024 YR4 could collide with the Moon in 2032. New observations have helped researchers refine the space rock’s trajectory and confirm that it will safely pass the lunar surface.
The updated calculations come from experts at NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California. By analyzing Webb observations taken on Feb. 18 and Feb. 26, the team significantly narrowed the range of possible future positions of the asteroid.With the improved data, asteroid 2024 YR4 is now expected to pass the Moon at a distance of about 13,200 miles on Dec. 22, 2032. Earlier models had suggested a small chance that the object could strike the lunar surface.Before incorporating the new observations, scientists had estimated the asteroid carried a 4.3 percent chance of hitting the Moon. The refined orbit now rules out that scenario entirely.Webb sharpens asteroid orbitThe improved prediction does not mean the asteroid’s path has changed. Instead, the additional observations have helped scientists determine its position in space more precisely.NASA explained that the update reflects better measurements rather than a shift in the asteroid’s actual trajectory. As more data is collected, scientists typically refine orbital models and reduce uncertainty about where an object will be in the future.To gather the critical data, researchers used the James Webb Space Telescope’s unique ability to detect extremely faint objects. The observation team, led by the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory in Laurel, Maryland, captured two additional measurements that proved key to improving the orbit estimate.Since the spring of 2025, asteroid 2024 YR4 has been largely unobservable from Earth-based and most space-based telescopes. Webb’s sensitivity allowed researchers to track the object even when it became too faint for other instruments to detect.The telescope managed to record what scientists describe as among the faintest observations ever made of an asteroid.From risk to reassuranceAsteroid 2024 YR4 was first discovered in late 2024 by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System , a NASA-funded survey station located in Chile.Initial measurements suggested the object had a small but notable chance of striking Earth in the future. As additional observations from telescopes around the world were gathered throughout 2025, scientists were able to refine its orbit.Those updated analyses eventually ruled out any significant risk to Earth on Dec. 22, 2032. Current models also show no threat from the asteroid over the next century.The process highlights how planetary defense monitoring works. Newly discovered asteroids often carry temporary impact probabilities when their orbits are still uncertain.As more observations are collected, those uncertainties shrink, allowing scientists to better understand the object’s true path through space.With the latest Webb data, researchers now have far greater confidence in where asteroid 2024 YR4 will be in 2032 and have eliminated the possibility of a lunar impact.
Asteroid Orbit James Webb Space Telescope Lunar Impact NASA Near-Earth Asteroid Planetary Defense Space Observation
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