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After the Thomas Fire, heavy rains triggered tremendous mud and debris flows in Montecito in early 2018. Rains following fires always raise concerns.Those living below the Eaton, Palisades and Hurst fire burn areas should be on the lookout for debris flows this weekend, as rain is expected between Saturday and Monday.
The rainfall rate of concern is about 0.5 inches per hour, which is possible, according to the National Weather Service.“The worst would be a debris flow that’s several feet deep, that closes roads in the area, isolates people in their homes and brings mud into homes," said Ryan Kittell, meteorologist with the National Weather Service.If you live below one of these burn areas and are worried, consider leaving long in advance of the rain. Otherwise, make sure you have a few days' worth of food and water in case roads are blocked., debris flows are a real concern below steep, recently burned areas. Just how much water, rock, mud and other debris can flow will depend on how much rain falls in a short period.Rain is expected to stick around from Saturday through Monday, though the period of greatest risk will be between 4 p.m. Sunday and 10 a.m. Monday. That's when the heaviest precipitation is expected to fall, according to the National Weather Service. While 0.25 inches an hour is likely across the broader region, isolated thunderstorms could drop more than 0.5 inches an hour, exceeding the threshold of concern for debris flows. Anticipate problems if rainfall rates exceed a quarter-inch in 15 minutes, especially in mountainous areas. "I'm most worried about the Eaton Fire," said Jason Kean, research hydrologist with the U.S. Geological Survey. That's because the steepness of the San Gabriel Mountains and the deep drainages that run throughout can capture tons of debris, funneling mud, plants and rocks toward communities below. There's a long history of mudslides in the area, which is why a While the overall risk should be quite low for this rain event, that doesn't mean we won't see isolated problems. “The worst would be a debris flow that’s several feet deep, that closes roads in the area, isolates people in their homes and brings mud into homes,” said Ryan Kittell, meteorologist with the NWS. If you live downhill from one of the burned areas and feel especially concerned, consider leaving ahead of the storm. If you choose not to leave, it would be a good idea to stock up with a few days' worth of food and water in case roads are blocked. Post-fire debris flow risk is highest right after a wildfire, but lasts anywhere from three to five years after a blaze, depending on how much rain an area gets and how long it takes for plants to repopulate hillsides. Not every fire gets a post-fire debris flow risk assessment. So far, the USGS has only received requests to perform debris flow modeling for the Eaton, Palisades and Hurst fires, according to Kean.The Eaton Fire devastated whole neighborhoods of Altadena and forced mass evacuations from parts of Altadena, Pasadena, Sierra Madre and Glendale.Mudslide risk assessment:The Kenneth Fire that broke out along the western edge of the San Fernando Valley and was fully contained relatively quickly. The fire started in the Upper Las Virgenes Canyon Open Space Preserve and pushed toward dense developments in the cities of Calabasas and Agoura.Mudslide risk assessment:CalFire incident page The Woodley Fire was reported near North Woodley Avenue and the Sepulveda Basin. In the early hours of the fire, officials warned that it posed"a threat of crossing Burbank Boulevard."Jacob Margolis, LAist's science reporter, examines the new normal of big fires in California.Check out LAist.com/FireFAQs to see if your question has already been answered. If not, submit your questions here, and we’ll do our best to get you an answer.Every day is now fire season. Let's get you ready for the next wildfire
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