'It wasn't until Putin was faced with the prospect of actually losing the war that he finally decided to do what military logic dictated,' an ISW expert says.
The Russian army that crossed the border into Ukraine on February 24, 2022 has been largely destroyed. Poor planning and execution, combined with a critical inability to adapt to changing combat conditions, have decimated its ranks and depleted its equipment. Moscow's forces, once considered to be the second most capable army in the world, are now widely viewed as the second most capable army in Ukraine, one that is all but incapable of conducting offensive operations on a significant scale.
"That's what we thought the Russians were doing," Barros added."But we didn't understand how hollow the exercises had been until we actually saw the First Guards Tank Army come up against a real life adversary." "Instead, the air and missile campaign lasted for only around six or seven hours," he added,"and they didn't really destroy anything of consequence before sending in ground troops, who in a lot of cases didn't seem to be expecting to meet actual resistance."
"Since the start of the war, Putin has actually been risk averse to the point that it's done tangible harm to the Russian war effort," Barros explained."The military situation in May already demanded that, if Russia actually still wanted to achieve its goals, mobilization needed to start going forward."
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