Morgan Stanley now sees Moderna shares spiking 26% from current levels, cites 65% chance of success for virus vaccine
"We believe both Moderna's ability to scale coupled with the promising early results positions them well to compete in the market," Morgan Stanley analyst Matthew Harrison wrote. The bank maintained its"overweight" rating of Moderna.
In addition, given Moderna's early results, the bank risk-adjusted its estimates and now sees a 65% probability of success for the vaccine. That's slightly higher than the roughly 56% success probability of typical phase two vaccine candidates, according to bank.A BlackRock money manager overseeing the top healthcare fund of the past 20 years pinpoints 3 growth areas she's betting on - and one she's avoiding amid the coronavirus recovery There are four drivers of Morgan Stanley's $53 boost to its Moderna valuation, according to the Wednesday note. The bank is allotting $23 per share for the COVID-19 valuation, and $12 per share for increased year-end 2021 cash and lower dilution given Moderna's fund-raising at a higher valuation, said Harrison. The bank is also adding $11 per share"related to higher probability of success across the vaccine platform given the continuing encouraging results" and the updated vaccine candidate timeline of six to nine more months, from three to four more years. Morgan Stanley also added $7 per share for Moderna's increased platform value. The firm now assumes that Moderna will sell about 1.5 billion doses of its COVID-19 vaccine during the pandemic period and roughly 150 million annual doses during the endemic period.
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