Morgan Stanley doubles down on forecast for a V-shaped economic recovery by 4th quarter | Markets Insider

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Morgan Stanley doubles down on forecast for a V-shaped economic recovery by 4th quarter | Markets Insider
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Morgan Stanley doubles down on forecast for a V-shaped economic recovery by 4th quarter

is more convinced than ever that the coronavirus recession will be a"sharp but short" blight on the global economy.

The global economy will roar back to pre-pandemic levels by the fourth quarter and fuel a strong stock-market bounce into 2021, they added. The advent of a new expansionary cycle should encourage greater risk-taking in other markets as well, the team wrote. The gap between junk and investment-grade corporate credit will shrink, creating an opportunity for those holding higher-yield bonds. Commodity prices will jump on a return to past output activity, though weaker fundamentals for oil risk a slower bounce-back.

In the bank's bearish scenario, another outbreak would force a return to strict quarantine orders and stymie reopenings currently taking place around the world. The second plunge in consumer demand would fuel a"double-dip" in global output, the economists wrote.

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