Republicans will be down two governorships next year for the most obvious reason: Govs. Charlie Baker (R-MA) and Larry Hogan (R-MD) were replaced by candidates aligned with former President Donald Trump who could not win their deep blue states.
Baker, who declined to run for a third term, and Hogan, who was term-limited out of office, were two of the most popular governors in the country. Geoff Diehl and Dan Cox were the two least plausible Trump-backed candidates for their states from the beginning.
When the party looked more like Baker and Hogan, Republicans held more House seats in places like Maryland, Massachusetts, and Connecticut but won far fewer elections overall. Places where the Rockefeller wing of the GOP was strongest were dominated by Democrats even back then. A dozen years ago, Republicans threw away a good chance to win the Senate — that year, they did add 63 House seats — on candidates such as Christine O’Donnell. Her primary opponent, then-Rep. Mike Castle, was a better fit for the Delaware electorate. But he would have been a disastrous model for the national GOP.
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