Can Mississippi keep pace with Alabama's high-powered offense? Expert analysis and predictions for the NCAA basketball matchup between the Rebels and the Crimson Tide, highlighting key factors and betting trends.
Alabama's offense is undeniably elite, but 12 points is a significant spread to cover against a team as strong as the Mississippi Rebels . The No. 21 ranked Mississippi Rebels travel to Tuscaloosa to face the No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide in NCAA basketball action on Tuesday night. While early betting favors the home team, pushing the spread from -9.5 to -12, my Mississippi vs. Alabama predictions lean towards the underdog.
The Alabama Crimson Tide are on a scorching hot streak, winning eight games consecutively while going 6-2 against the spread during that period. However, this spread appears a bit inflated against a 14-2 Mississippi Rebels squad that has performed well against the spread, going 10-3 ATS in their last 13 contests. Chris Beard has the Rebels playing effectively on both ends of the court. Mississippi ranks 31st in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency perwhile holding a respectable 21st ranking in adjusted defense. While no team can truly stop Alabama's high-octane offense at home, the Rebels should be able to at least slow them down. Although the Rebels lack significant size, their smaller, more mobile lineup will limit Alabama's transition opportunities. Furthermore, the Tide attempt three-pointers on 48.9% of their shots, the third-highest rate among high-major schools. However, they are 228th in the country in 3-point percentage (32.3%), while Mississippi sits at 26th in 3-point defense, holding opponents to a 29.3% shooting percentage from beyond the arc. On the other end of the court, defense has been an afterthought for the Tide, ranking 285th in points per game allowed (77.4) and 336th in opponent turnover rate (14%). The Rebels are known for rarely turning the ball over, spreading the floor effectively, and demonstrating good ball movement. With four players averaging double digits in points, led by guard Sean Pedulla (14.1 ppg on 44/40/85 shooting splits), they should be able to score enough to cover this substantial spread. Malik Dia averaged 16.9 points in 23.2 minutes per game with Belmont last season. While Dia didn't see consistent playing time early this season with Mississippi, Beard has recently increased his minutes in an effort to bolster their presence on the boards and in the paint. Dia logged a season-high 28 minutes last Wednesday, scoring 21 points with eight rebounds against Arkansas. He followed that performance with a 19-point outing in 26 minutes against LSU in their last game. With senior guard Latrell Wrightsell sidelined for the year due to an Achilles tendon injury, Alabama guard Labaron Philon has seen a significant increase in usage. The freshman has recorded five or more assists in four of his last five games and is coming off a seven-assist performance against Texas A&M
NCAA Basketball Mississippi Rebels Alabama Crimson Tide Chris Beard Betting Predictions Spread Over/Under
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